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2026 Predictions

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Each tracked projection should include publication price, model probability, fair line, closing price when available, and final grading. The current public log is new, so performance claims are separated from settled results.

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Latest WAR Projections & Analysis

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Xavier Edwards Miami Marlins infielder centered action photo loanDepot Park Marlins team total under 3.5 vs Nationals Foster Griffin strike-throwing left-handed model edge May 8 2026
Team Total Model May 8, 2026

Marlins Team Total Under 3.5 Model Edge: Snelling's Debut Workload Cap, Foster Griffin's Strike-Throwing Profile, And A loanDepot Park Run Environment That Compresses Miami's Output

Run environment model lands at 2.90 projected Marlins runs against a 3.5 team total at +110. Foster Griffin's strike-and-attack changeup-first approach against the Marlins' chase-zone tendencies, loanDepot's cool-May dome-closed park compression, and the structural pressing pattern with Snelling on debut workload all push the under direction.

📊 Model Marlins 2.90 vs 3.5 ⚾ Marlins TT U 3.5 (+110) | 1u
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Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds shortstop centered action photo Wrigley Field Reds team total under 4.5 vs Cubs Shota Imanaga strike-throwing model edge May 7 2026
Team Total Model May 7, 2026

Reds Team Total Under 4.5 Model Edge: Imanaga's Strike-Throwing Left-Handed Profile, Wrigley Field May Day-Game Compression, And A Reds Lineup Pressing For Lowder

Run environment model lands at 3.70 projected Reds runs against a 4.5 team total at -110. Imanaga's strike-and-attack splitter-first approach against the Reds' chase-zone tendencies, Wrigley's May cool day-game park-factor compression, and the structural pressing pattern with Lowder on the mound all push the under direction.

📊 Model Reds 3.70 vs 4.5 ⚾ Reds TT U 4.5 (-110) | 2.5u
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Mookie Betts Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder centered action photo Daikin Park Dodgers team total under 5.5 vs Astros Lance McCullers Jr curveball model edge May 6 2026
Team Total Model May 6, 2026

Dodgers Team Total Under 5.5 Model Edge: McCullers' Curveball Gravity, Daikin Park Afternoon Suppression, And A Road Lineup Pressing For Glasnow

Run environment model lands at 4.40 projected Dodgers runs against a 5.5 team total at -130. McCullers' curveball-first approach against the Dodgers' chase-zone tendencies, Daikin's day-game park-factor compression, and the structural pressing pattern with Glasnow on the mound all push the under direction.

📊 Model Dodgers 4.40 vs 5.5 ⚾ Dodgers TT U 5.5 (-130) | 3u
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Spencer Torkelson Detroit Tigers first baseman centered action photo Comerica Park Tigers team total under 4.5 vs Red Sox Moran Bello bullpen game model edge May 5 2026
Team Total Model May 5, 2026

Tigers Team Total Under 4.5 Model Edge: Boston Bullpen Game, Comerica Suppression, And An Offense Without Its Cushion

Run environment model lands at 3.60 projected Tigers runs against a 4.5 team total. Boston deploys Jovani Moran as opener and Brayan Bello as bulk, Skubal is out with elbow surgery, and Comerica in cool May weather adds another layer of suppression. Three independent model layers all push under.

📊 Model Tigers 3.60 vs 4.5 ⚾ Tigers TT U 4.5 (-115) | 2.5u
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Ronald Acuna Jr Atlanta Braves outfielder centered action photo at the plate T-Mobile Park Braves team total over 3.5 plus 105 vs Mariners Logan Gilbert velocity decline 1-Atlas model 5.62 run projection May 4 2026
Atlas Model Output May 4, 2026

Braves Team Total Over 3.5 Model Edge: Logan Gilbert Velocity Decline, T-Mobile Park, And A 5.62 Run Projection

1-Atlas residual model lands at 5.62 projected Braves runs vs the 3.5 team total. Logan Gilbert's fastball velocity is down a full tick year over year, his 4.03 ERA pairs with a .365 wOBA-against vs righties, and Atlanta's right-handed core keeps the over edge intact even at T-Mobile Park.

📊 Atlas Proj 5.62 Runs ⚾ Braves TT O3.5 (+105) | 2.5u
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Dustin May Cardinals starting pitcher vs Red Sox April 10 2026 regression analysis moneyline underdog
Underdog Moneyline April 10, 2026

Why the Data Points to Cardinals ML +124 Against Red Sox on April 10

Dustin May's 15.95 ERA is a small-sample mirage. Three independent models (xFIP adjusted, platoon split, park factor) all push St. Louis above the +124 implied probability. Jordan Walker leads MLB with five home runs. The sharpest underdog on the April 10 fifteen-game slate.

📊 Model: 49.1% win prob ⚾ Cardinals ML +124
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MLB 2026 spring training camp analytics player development pitcher workloads
Analytics Deep DiveFebruary 16, 2026

MLB 2026 Spring Training Analytics: Sasaki's Pitch Development, Atlanta's Rotation Crisis, and the Yankee Slugger's Elbow Recovery

Three developments out of MLB camps carry real analytical weight for 2026 projections: Roki Sasaki's pitch arsenal expansion, Atlanta's compounding rotation losses with Schwellenbach on 60-day IL, and a New York Yankees slugger's elbow recovery timeline ahead of the WBC.

📊 3 Key Developments⚾ Pitch Arsenal + WAR Impact
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