Advanced MLB predictions powered by WAR, xFIP, wOBA, and cutting-edge sabermetrics. Statistical analysis built for serious bettors who trust the numbers over narratives.
Statistical analysis shows NL teams project for +4.2% higher collective WAR than AL teams heading into 2026. The Dodgers lead with 106.2 projected wins.
Three developments out of MLB camps carry real analytical weight for 2026 projections: Roki Sasaki's pitch arsenal expansion, Atlanta's compounding rotation losses with Schwellenbach on 60-day IL, and Aaron Judge's elbow recovery timeline ahead of the WBC.
Houston reacquired Joey Loperfido from Toronto for Jesus Sanchez. Loperfido's 2025 slash of .333/.879 OPS in 41 games vs his .197/.236/.343 in 2024 creates a fascinating analytical question about sample size vs true talent level.
The former MVP re-signs for a third of last year's salary. His OPS+ cratered from 178 in 2022 to 100 by 2024. At $4M for a platoon role, the WAR math projects 0.5-1.0 fWAR against lefties.
Paredes' .353 wOBA against a .320 xwOBA suggests 2025 overperformance. His 87.4 mph exit velocity and 6.3% barrel rate raise questions, but plate discipline and positional versatility project 2.5-3.0 fWAR.
The data paints an ugly picture heading into camp. Boston ranks 28th in projected WAR at third base and 18th at second base, while the Mets sit 24th in outfield WAR, creating a textbook surplus-for-need swap window. Pittsburgh posted the 29th-worst infield OPS league-wide in 2025, and Kansas City's outfield corps ranked dead last in wRC+ last season, finishing bottom five in OPS for three consecutive years. Houston's rotation reads like a Tommy John recovery ward: Ronel Blanco, Hayden Wesneski, and Brandon Walter are all rehabbing, Cristian Javier is returning from injury, and Lance McCullers Jr. hasn't posted league-average xFIP numbers since 2021. The Astros' infield surplus and need for a left-handed bat makes them a prime trade partner for pitching-rich clubs.
One hundred fifty years ago, the National League was founded. Now, statistical analysis reveals the Senior Circuit holds a tangible edge. ZiPS projections rank the Dodgers as baseball's best team for the fifth time in six years. NL teams project for +4.2% higher collective WAR than AL teams.
The Giants signed three-time batting champion Luis Arraez. His career 5.8% strikeout rate ranks lowest among active hitters. Models project 2.4-2.8 fWAR.
Shohei Ohtani won't pitch in the WBC. Our model now projects 5.2-6.0 fWAR pitching plus 5.8-6.4 fWAR hitting. Combined 11.0-12.4 total WAR ranks first in baseball.
Teams with early report dates historically show 0.3-0.5 better rotation ERA in April. Dodgers (Feb 13) rank last among contenders despite leading in rotation fWAR (18.4).
Harrison Bader's 2-year, $20.5M deal brings elite center field defense. Career +34 DRS projects to 1.8-2.2 dWAR annually. Giants now project for 81.3 wins.
Chivilli's raw 2.89 ERA becomes park-adjusted 2.42 ERA. His 94.6 mph fastball and 28.4% whiff rate project to improve at sea level. xFIP: 2.55-2.85.
Free MLB predictions and WAR-based analysis for serious bettors who trust the numbers over narratives.