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2026 Predictions

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Each tracked projection should include publication price, model probability, fair line, closing price when available, and final grading. The current public log is new, so performance claims are separated from settled results.

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Latest WAR Projections & Analysis

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Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJuly 4, 2026

July 4 Run-Prevention Model: Padres Team Total Under, Dodgers Run Line, Brewers Win Probability

A run-distribution model card for the July 4 board built on WHIP and strikeout rate: the Padres team total under 3.5 behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto and a 0.89 WHIP, the Brewers win probability behind the lowest WHIP on the slate, the Mets team total under against Chris Sale, the Dodgers run line, the Rays-Astros under at plus money, and a high-variance Coors output, ranked by projected edge.

📊 Yamamoto 0.89 WHIP⚾ 12 outputs ranked
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New York Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 25, 2026

Run-Suppression Model: Red Sox And Nationals Team Total Unders

A run-suppression projection model for the June 25 board. The Red Sox team total under 3.5 behind Cam Schlittler's 1.71 ERA and 10.33 K/9, the Nationals under 3.5 behind Cristopher Sanchez's 1.09 WHIP, the Astros Tigers under 9 on Troy Melton's 0.947 WHIP, and the moneyline outputs sorted by projected edge and variance.

📊 Red Sox TT Under 3.5⚾ Nationals TT Under 3.5
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Cleveland Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 22, 2026

Strikeout-Rate Model: Guardians Under, Brewers Yankees Edges

A strikeout-rate projection model for the June 22 board built on starter K rate and contact suppression: the Guardians White Sox under behind Gavin Williams' 27.9 percent strikeout rate, the Brewers and Yankees win-probability edges, and the Astros Blue Jays plus-money under.

📊 Guardians White Sox Under 8⚾ Brewers And Yankees Moneyline
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Starting pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 20, 2026

Run-Prevention Model: Rockies And Orioles Team Total Unders, And A Brewers Braves First Five Under

A June 20 board where the starter term beats the lineup and the park: the Rockies team total under 4.5 behind Paul Skenes at Coors Field for 3 units, the Orioles team total under 3.5 against Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 0.84 WHIP for 2.5 units, and the Brewers Braves first five innings under 3.5 behind Kyle Harrison and Chris Sale for 2.5 units.

📊 Rockies TT Under 4.5⚾ Orioles TT Under 3.5
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Texas Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 19, 2026

The Padres Team Total Under 3.5 vs deGrom: A Run-Prevention Projection Read

Padres team total under 3.5 at -150 for 2.5 units. The worst offense in the National League at .218 and a .652 OPS meets Jacob deGrom's 0.99 WHIP and 10.45 strikeouts per nine at Globe Life Field. When the hitting term is low and the suppression term is high, the projected run distribution collapses below the line.

📊 Padres TT Under 3.5⚾ deGrom 0.99 WHIP
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Cleveland Guardians rookie pitcher Parker Messick delivering a changeup in action
Latest PredictionJune 18, 2026

Guardians Brewers Under And Red Sox Team Total Under: The June 18 Run-Prevention Projection Model

A run-prevention projection for the June 18 board built on starter strikeout rate and contact suppression. The Guardians Brewers under 7.5 behind Parker Messick's 44 percent changeup whiff rate against a hot Milwaukee bat, the Red Sox team total under 4.5 as the lowest-variance output, and the Mariners moneyline read through a WHIP gap.

📊 Guardians/Brewers Under 7.5⚾ Red Sox TT Under 4.5
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Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Zack Wheeler delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 15, 2026

The WHIP-Differential Win-Probability Model: Cubs And Phillies Moneylines For June 15

A win-probability projection for two Monday home favorites built on starting-pitcher WHIP differential. The Cubs moneyline at -210 rides a 0.84-baserunner edge for Shota Imanaga over Michael Lorenzen, the Phillies moneyline at -184 leans on Zack Wheeler's 0.85 WHIP carrying a light offense, and both clear their implied break-even.

📊 Cubs ML -210⚾ Phillies ML -184
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Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sanchez delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 14, 2026

The Pitching-Heavy Sunday Model: Run-Expectancy Unders And The Mariners Moneyline Edge

A run-expectancy projection for a pitching-heavy Sunday board. The model stacks team total unders behind Cristopher Sanchez's 1.54 ERA and 113 strikeouts and Paul Skenes' 0.93 WHIP, reads the Cubs under through the Oracle Park run-suppression factor, and finds a 2-unit Mariners moneyline edge in Emerson Hancock's 0.95 WHIP.

📊 Brewers TT Under 3.5⚾ Mariners ML -129
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Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Shane McClanahan delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 12, 2026

Angels Team Total Under, Mariners Moneyline, Nationals Under: The Run-Expectancy Projection Model For June 12

The June 12 model reads four spots through run expectancy and contact quality: the Angels team total under 3.5 against Shane McClanahan's changeup and a .701-OPS lineup, the Mariners moneyline behind Bryce Miller's 0.78 WHIP over his last four starts, the Nationals under at plus money, and the Giants moneyline on the Oracle Park run-suppression factor.

📊 Angels TT Under 3.5⚾ Mariners ML -142
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Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Martin Perez delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 11, 2026

Braves Moneyline -110 vs White Sox: The Win-Probability Model Read On Perez And Run Differential

The June 11 model prices the gap between a high-50s projected win probability and the 52.4 percent the -110 price implies. Three aligned inputs drive it: Martin Perez's 1.06 WHIP against Anthony Kay's 1.45, a .242-hitting White Sox lineup that does not clear a low-WHIP arm, and Atlanta's plus-114 run differential against Chicago's plus-10; -110 for 1 unit.

📊 Braves ML -110⚾ +114 Run Diff
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Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Kyle Harrison delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 8, 2026

Kyle Harrison Over 16.5 Outs Prediction: The Projection Math vs The Athletics

The June 8 model play reads Harrison's outs-recorded line a half-tick low. His last five starts logged 21, 18, and 17 outs in three of them, his 1.03 WHIP and 11.46 K/9 fingerprint clean push-able innings, and a contact-oriented Athletics lineup lets a strikeout arm work fast; over 16.5 outs at -106 for 2.5 units.

📊 Harrison Over 16.5 Outs -106⚾ Brewers at Athletics
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Baltimore Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 7, 2026

Blue Jays Team Total Under 4.5 Prediction: Shane Baz's Form Curve Caps Toronto At Rogers Centre

The MLBPrediction June 7 play weights recent form over season ERA: Blue Jays team total under 4.5 against Shane Baz at Rogers Centre. Toronto scores 4.07 runs per game over its last 30 with three or fewer in 15 of them, while Baz has allowed two earned runs or fewer in four straight starts including back-to-back outings of 9 and 6 strikeouts; -135 for 0.5 units.

📊 Blue Jays TT Under 4.5 -135⚾ Rogers Centre
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Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Brandon Sproat delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 5, 2026

Rockies Team Total Under 5.5 Prediction: The Coors Premium Is Mispriced Against Milwaukee's Staff

The MLBPrediction June 5 play prices the altitude premium itself: Rockies team total under 5.5 at Coors Field against a Milwaukee staff with a 3.26 ERA and 9.75 strikeouts per nine. Colorado scores 4.32 runs per game on the season, the model projects 4.59 tonight, and the line demands more than a full run above their own rate; -140 for 1.5 units.

📊 Rockies TT Under 5.5 -140⚾ Coors Field
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Cleveland Guardians pitcher Parker Messick delivering in action at Progressive Field
Latest PredictionJune 10, 2026

Two Under 7.5 Plays On June 10: The Run-Distribution Model Read On Messick And Rasmussen

The MLBPrediction June 10 model flags two low-scoring profiles at once: Yankees / Guardians under 7.5 and Red Sox / Rays under 7.5. Parker Messick's 2.40 ERA and Drew Rasmussen's 0.92 WHIP front quality staffs against the Guardians' .688 OPS and a Red Sox club with the board's lowest power output. Both combined estimates land in the low-to-mid 6s; -105 for 2 units and -125 for 3 units.

📊 Two Unders 7.5⚾ 5 Units
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Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale delivering a pitch in action
Latest PredictionJune 4, 2026

Blue Jays Team Total Under 3.5 Prediction: Chris Sale Caps Toronto At Truist Park

The MLBPrediction June 4 play isolates one distribution: Blue Jays team total under 3.5 against Chris Sale at Truist Park. Sale's 1.99 ERA and 0.96 WHIP, fronting the league's stingiest run-prevention staff, compress Toronto's projected run column below the line. Toronto held to exactly three runs in each of the first two games of this series; -190.

📊 Blue Jays TT Under 3.5 -190⚾ Truist Park
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New York Yankees starting pitcher Cam Schlittler delivering in action at Yankee Stadium
Latest PredictionJune 2, 2026

Guardians Team Total Under 3.5 Prediction: Schlittler Caps Cleveland At Yankee Stadium

The MLBPrediction June 2 play is a pitcher-suppression read: Guardians team total under 3.5 at Yankee Stadium. Cam Schlittler's 1.50 ERA compresses Cleveland's projected run distribution against a top arm, and the central estimate for the Guardians run column lands under the line. Cleveland at New York; -175 for 3 units.

📊 Guardians TT Under 3.5 -175⚾ 3 Units
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Minnesota Twins starting pitcher Joe Ryan delivering in action at Target Field
Latest PredictionJune 1, 2026

White Sox Team Total Under 3.5 Prediction: Joe Ryan Caps Chicago At Target Field

The MLBPrediction June 1 play is a pitcher-suppression read: White Sox team total under 3.5 at Target Field. Joe Ryan's 2.94 ERA compresses Chicago's projected run distribution, and a neutral park adds no cheap offense, so the central estimate for the White Sox run column lands under the line. Chicago at Minnesota; -120 for 2.5 units.

📊 White Sox TT Under 3.5 -120⚾ 2.5 Units
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Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto delivering in action
Latest PredictionJune 13, 2026

Yamamoto's Dodgers And A Two-Ace Under 7.5: The Run-Prevention Model Read

The MLBPrediction June 13 read is a pair of run-prevention plays: the Dodgers moneyline -210 behind Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 0.92 WHIP against the White Sox, and the Rangers Red Sox under 7.5 behind two 3.18-ERA arms in Jacob deGrom and Ranger Suarez at Fenway Park. WHIP drives both projections. Dodgers 2 units, under 1.5 units.

📊 Dodgers ML -210⚾ Rangers/Red Sox U7.5 -102
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Royals-Rangers Over 7.5 Prediction At Globe Life Field
Latest PredictionMay 31, 2026

Royals-Rangers Over 7.5 Prediction: Wacha vs Leiter At Globe Life Field

The MLBPrediction May 31 play is a split-starter total read: Royals/Rangers over 7.5 at Globe Life Field. Jack Leiter's 4.75 ERA and 1.37 WHIP inflate the run environment against Michael Wacha's suppression, and the climate-controlled dome keeps the projected combined total above the line. Kansas City at Texas; -120 for 2 units.

📊 Royals/Rangers Over 7.5 -120⚾ 2 Units
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Cubs Team Total Under 3.5 Prediction At PNC Park
Latest PredictionMay 28, 2026

Cubs Team Total Under 3.5 Prediction At PNC Park

The MLBPrediction May 28 play is a strikeout-rate and run-distribution read: Chicago team total under 3.5 against Paul Skenes at PNC Park. Skenes' 3.00 ERA, 65-strikeout swing-and-miss profile and a deep PNC Park run environment pull the projected Cubs total below the line in the model's central estimate. Chicago at Pittsburgh; -145 for 3 units.

📊 Cubs Team Total Under 3.5 -145⚾ 3 Units
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Rockies Team Total Under 2.5 Prediction At Dodger Stadium
Latest PredictionMay 27, 2026

Rockies Team Total Under 2.5 Prediction At Dodger Stadium

The MLBPrediction May 27 play is a run-distribution read: Colorado team total under 2.5 against the Dodgers starter Shohei Ohtani at Dodger Stadium. A 0.73 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and 54-strikeout Los Angeles arm plus a road Rockies offense that loses its Coors Field carry are the run-suppression engine. Colorado at Los Angeles; -115 for 1 unit.

📊 Rockies Team Total Under 2.5 -115⚾ 1 Unit
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Royals Team Total Under 3.5 Prediction: George Kirby Caps Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium
Latest PredictionMay 23, 2026

Royals Team Total Under 3.5 Prediction: George Kirby Caps Kansas City at Kauffman Stadium

The MLBPrediction May 23 card is a run-distribution play: Kansas City team total under 3.5 against George Kirby at Kauffman Stadium. Kirby's 55.2% ground-ball rate, a 20-30 Royals offense, and Kauffman's spacious outfield are the run-suppression engine. Seattle -142 / Kansas City +120; 4:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium.

📊 Royals Team Total Under 3.5 -105⚾ 1.5 Units
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Xavier Edwards Miami Marlins infielder centered action photo loanDepot Park Marlins team total under 3.5...
Team Total Model May 8, 2026

Marlins Team Total Under 3.5 Model Edge: Snelling's Debut Workload Cap, Foster Griffin's Strike-Throwing Profile, And A loanDepot Park Run Environment That Compresses Miami's Output

Run environment model lands at 2.90 projected Marlins runs against a 3.5 team total at +110. Foster Griffin's strike-and-attack changeup-first approach against the Marlins' chase-zone tendencies, loanDepot's cool-May dome-closed park compression, and the structural pressing pattern with Snelling on debut workload all push the under direction.

📊 Model Marlins 2.90 vs 3.5 ⚾ Marlins TT U 3.5 (+110) | 1u
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Elly De La Cruz Cincinnati Reds shortstop centered action photo Wrigley Field Reds team total...
Team Total Model May 7, 2026

Reds Team Total Under 4.5 Model Edge: Imanaga's Strike-Throwing Left-Handed Profile, Wrigley Field May Day-Game Compression, And A Reds Lineup Pressing For Lowder

Run environment model lands at 3.70 projected Reds runs against a 4.5 team total at -110. Imanaga's strike-and-attack splitter-first approach against the Reds' chase-zone tendencies, Wrigley's May cool day-game park-factor compression, and the structural pressing pattern with Lowder on the mound all push the under direction.

📊 Model Reds 3.70 vs 4.5 ⚾ Reds TT U 4.5 (-110) | 2.5u
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Mookie Betts Los Angeles Dodgers right fielder centered action photo Daikin Park Dodgers team total...
Team Total Model May 6, 2026

Dodgers Team Total Under 5.5 Model Edge: McCullers' Curveball Gravity, Daikin Park Afternoon Suppression, And A Road Lineup Pressing For Glasnow

Run environment model lands at 4.40 projected Dodgers runs against a 5.5 team total at -130. McCullers' curveball-first approach against the Dodgers' chase-zone tendencies, Daikin's day-game park-factor compression, and the structural pressing pattern with Glasnow on the mound all push the under direction.

📊 Model Dodgers 4.40 vs 5.5 ⚾ Dodgers TT U 5.5 (-130) | 3u
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Spencer Torkelson Detroit Tigers first baseman centered action photo Comerica Park Tigers team total under...
Team Total Model May 5, 2026

Tigers Team Total Under 4.5 Model Edge: Boston Bullpen Game, Comerica Suppression, And An Offense Without Its Cushion

Run environment model lands at 3.60 projected Tigers runs against a 4.5 team total. Boston deploys Jovani Moran as opener and Brayan Bello as bulk, Skubal is out with elbow surgery, and Comerica in cool May weather adds another layer of suppression. Three independent model layers all push under.

📊 Model Tigers 3.60 vs 4.5 ⚾ Tigers TT U 4.5 (-115) | 2.5u
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Ronald Acuna Jr Atlanta Braves outfielder centered action photo at the plate T-Mobile Park Braves...
Atlas Model Output May 4, 2026

Braves Team Total Over 3.5 Model Edge: Logan Gilbert Velocity Decline, T-Mobile Park, And A 5.62 Run Projection

1-Atlas residual model lands at 5.62 projected Braves runs vs the 3.5 team total. Logan Gilbert's fastball velocity is down a full tick year over year, his 4.03 ERA pairs with a .365 wOBA-against vs righties, and Atlanta's right-handed core keeps the over edge intact even at T-Mobile Park.

📊 Atlas Proj 5.62 Runs ⚾ Braves TT O3.5 (+105) | 2.5u
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Dustin May Cardinals starting pitcher vs Red Sox April 10 2026 regression analysis moneyline underdog
Underdog Moneyline April 10, 2026

Why the Data Points to Cardinals ML +124 Against Red Sox on April 10

Dustin May's 15.95 ERA is a small-sample mirage. Three independent models (xFIP adjusted, platoon split, park factor) all push St. Louis above the +124 implied probability. Jordan Walker leads MLB with five home runs. The sharpest underdog on the April 10 fifteen-game slate.

📊 Model: 49.1% win prob ⚾ Cardinals ML +124
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MLB 2026 spring training camp analytics player development pitcher workloads
Analytics Deep DiveFebruary 16, 2026

MLB 2026 Spring Training Analytics: Sasaki's Pitch Development, Atlanta's Rotation Crisis, and the Yankee Slugger's Elbow Recovery

Three developments out of MLB camps carry real analytical weight for 2026 projections: Roki Sasaki's pitch arsenal expansion, Atlanta's compounding rotation losses with Schwellenbach on 60-day IL, and a New York Yankees slugger's elbow recovery timeline ahead of the WBC.

📊 3 Key Developments⚾ Pitch Arsenal + WAR Impact
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