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Jacob Wilson Athletics shortstop 2026 contract extension WAR analysis
February 3, 2026 WAR Analysis

Jacob Wilson Extension: WAR Projections Show Athletics Building Elite Infield Core

The Athletics officially signed All-Star shortstop Jacob Wilson to a 7-year, $70 million extension Monday, and the advanced metrics tell a compelling story. Wilson's 2025 rookie campaign produced 3.0 fWAR, a .311/.355/.444 slash line (121 OPS+), and elite contact skills that ranked third in AL batting average. At just 23 years old (drafted 6th overall in 2023 out of Grand Canyon), his age-adjusted WAR trajectory projects to 3.5-4.5 fWAR annually through his prime years. The contract structure is analytically sound: $10M AAV through 2032 with a club option for 2033 avoids arbitration for 2027-2029 and locks in pre-free-agency production. ZiPS projections show Wilson's expected wOBA (.355) and xBA (.298) both ranking among top-10 AL shortstops. The Athletics' infield now projects for combined 9.2-11.5 fWAR with Wilson, Soderstrom (2.8-3.2 projected), Butler (1.8-2.2), and Rooker (2.6-3.0). For futures bettors tracking WAR-based win models: Oakland's team projection should rise from 71.3 to 73.8 wins, pushing their market line of 69.5 into clear over territory. The franchise's youth movement, averaging just 24.6 years for their extended core, represents the AL's most sustainable foundation heading into their 2028 Las Vegas relocation.

📊 3.0 fWAR (2025) 💰 $70M / 7yr 🎯 .311 BA (3rd AL)
National League 150th Anniversary MLB 2026 season statistical analysis
February 2, 2026 150th Anniversary

National League 150th Anniversary: WAR Analysis Shows NL Dominance Over AL

One hundred fifty years ago today, on February 2, 1876, the National League was founded at the Grand Central Hotel in New York. Now, 150 years later, statistical analysis reveals the Senior Circuit may hold a tangible edge over its 125-year-old rival. The Dodgers are chasing an unprecedented third consecutive World Series title, something no NL team has ever accomplished. ZiPS projections rank them as baseball's best team for the fifth time in six years. Their combined 106.2 projected wins represent the highest total in the majors, driven by three future Hall of Famers (Ohtani, Freeman, Betts) and a rotation projecting 18.4 fWAR. But the NL advantage extends beyond Los Angeles. FanGraphs' young player WAR rankings show NL teams dominating the top spots: Brewers (23.9 WAR from age-26-and-under players), Diamondbacks (18.0), and Dodgers (16.4). Meanwhile, the AL's supposed contenders have struggled with youth development. The Orioles ranked 23rd in young player value despite their hyped farm system, dropping from 101 wins in 2023 to 75 in 2025. The Cubs and Braves, both charter NL members still playing 150 years later, represent the league's historical continuity. For futures bettors, the statistical edge is clear: NL teams project for 4.2% higher collective WAR than AL teams heading into 2026.

📊 106.2 Projected Wins (LAD) 🏆 150 Years NL 📈 +4.2% WAR Edge
Luis Arraez batting - three-time batting champion signs with Giants 2026
February 1, 2026 WAR Analysis

Arraez WAR Projections: Giants Add Elite Contact, Minimal Strikeout Rate

The Giants signed three-time batting champion Luis Arraez to a 1-year, $12M deal. Arraez's career 5.8% strikeout rate ranks as the lowest among active qualified hitters. Our WAR models project 2.4-2.8 fWAR as the Giants' full-time 2B. At $4.3-5.0M per WAR, this represents strong value. Giants team WAR now sits at 37.8, pushing win total projection to 82.1 versus 79.5 market line.

📊 2.4-2.8 fWAR 💰 $12M / 1yr 🎯 5.8% K Rate
Shohei Ohtani pitching for the Los Angeles Dodgers
February 1, 2026 Featured

Ohtani Skips WBC Pitching: 2026 WAR Projections Updated

Shohei Ohtani won't pitch in the WBC. Our pitching WAR model now projects 5.2-6.0 fWAR on the mound plus 5.8-6.4 fWAR hitting. Combined 11.0-12.4 total WAR ranks first in baseball. Dodgers project for 106.2 wins.

📊 11-12.4 Total WAR 🎯 11.2 K/9
MLB Spring Training 2026 pitchers and catchers workouts
January 30, 2026 Rotation Analysis

Spring Training 2026: Who Reports First Matters for WAR

Teams with early report dates historically show 0.3-0.5 better rotation ERA in April. Dodgers (Feb 13) rank last among contenders on prep time despite leading in rotation fWAR (18.4). April fade opportunity?

📅 Feb 10-13 📊 18.4 fWAR (LAD)
Harrison Bader making a defensive play in center field
January 30, 2026 Defensive Metrics

Giants Sign Bader: +34 Career DRS Projects to 1.8-2.2 dWAR

Harrison Bader's 2-year, $20.5M deal brings elite center field defense. Career +34 DRS projects to 1.8-2.2 dWAR annually. Giants now project for 81.3 wins vs 79.5 market line. The over looks attractive.

📊 1.8-2.2 dWAR 💰 $20.5M / 2yr
Angel Chivilli pitching for the Yankees 2026
January 29, 2026 xFIP Analysis

Yankees Acquire Chivilli: Coors Translation Model Shows Value

Chivilli's raw 2.89 ERA becomes park-adjusted 2.42 ERA. His 94.6 mph fastball and 28.4% whiff rate project to improve at sea level. xFIP projections: 2.55-2.85 ERA at Yankee Stadium with 11.2 K/9.

📊 2.55-2.85 xFIP 🎯 28.4% Whiff
Cleveland Guardians top prospects 2026 Pipeline rankings
January 29, 2026 Prospect Pipeline

Farm System Rankings: Cleveland's 8.5 fWAR Pipeline Leads MLB

Cleveland's #1 ranking driven by four 50+ FV arms projecting 8.5 fWAR from 2026-28. Rockies (#7) present intriguing 2028 value with 12.3 fWAR projected. Yankees' middling farm means win-now pressure.

📊 8.5 Pipeline WAR 🏆 CLE #1
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Bo Bichette batting for the Toronto Blue Jays
January 24, 2026 Position Analysis

Bichette to Mets: SS to 3B Position Change Costs 0.4-0.6 WAR

Bo Bichette's 3-year, $126M deal moves him from SS to 3B. WAR models project 4.2 fWAR at 3B vs 4.8 at SS. Mets project for 93.7 wins. NL East odds should compress from +320 to +260.

📊 4.2 fWAR (3B) 💰 $126M / 3yr
Seranthony Dominguez pitching for the White Sox 2026
January 24, 2026 xFIP Analysis

Dominguez xFIP 3.42 vs 4.75 ERA: BABIP Regression Incoming

Seranthony Dominguez (2yr/$20M) posted 4.75 ERA but 3.42 xFIP. His .341 BABIP vs career .289 suggests bad luck. 95.2 mph velo and 32.4% K rate rank 85th percentile. Expect 3.60 ERA if BABIP normalizes.

📊 3.42 xFIP 🎯 32.4% K Rate
Munetaka Murakami rounding bases after home run in World Baseball Classic
January 28, 2026 NPB Translation

NPB Translation Model: Murakami Projects 2.8-3.4 fWAR

Murakami's 36-homer NPB season translates to 28-32 MLB homers using historical conversion rates. Okamoto (Blue Jays, $60M/4yr) projects 2.5-3.0 fWAR. Teams landing Murakami should see 1.5-2.5 win bumps.

📊 2.8-3.4 fWAR 🎯 28-32 HR Proj
Freddy Peralta pitching for the Mets 2026
January 28, 2026 Contract Analysis

Peralta's 2.78 xFIP Makes Extension a No-Brainer for Mets

Freddy Peralta's 2.89 ERA backed by elite 2.78 xFIP. His 11.4 K/9 ranks 8th among qualified starters. At $8M in 2026, he's a rare cost-controlled ace. If Mets extend him, World Series odds shift 50-75 points.

📊 2.78 xFIP 🎯 11.4 K/9
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