Seven-leg card, 11.5 units. Priced at the posted number. Correlation writeup underneath the board.
Pirates vs Padres at Petco Park on August 24, 2026. Published play: Pirates/Padres Under 7.5 -115 (2.5u). Braxton Ashcraft vs Robbie Ray.
| Game | Pick | Odds | Units | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Pirates at San Diego Padres | Under 7.5 | -115 | 2.5u | Largest stake on the card. Five unders load on the same run-environment factor. |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels | Angels team total under 3.5 | -140 | 2.0u | Positive loading on the night's run-suppression factor. |
| Philadelphia Phillies at Seattle Mariners | Mariners team total under 3.5 | -150 | 2.0u | T-Mobile Park plus a run-suppression loading. Wheeler is one of five unders on the latent factor. |
| Cleveland Guardians at Los Angeles Angels | Guardians moneyline | -160 | 1.0u | Side that still loads positively on a low-scoring night. |
| Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers | Under 6.5 | -110 | 1.0u | Same run-environment factor as the other unders, smaller stake. |
| Minnesota Twins at Athletics | Over 11 | -110 | 1.5u | Only negative loading. Partial hedge that trims upside more than downside. |
| Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks | Cubs moneyline | -138 | 1.5u | Modeled as independent of the shared run-environment factor. |
Settled so far on this card: 1–1 (−1.09u). Five legs still live. Pending is not a win. Full card · Record · Copula writeup
Pirates vs Padres at Petco Park on August 24, 2026. Published play: Pirates/Padres Under 7.5 -115 (2.5u). Braxton Ashcraft vs Robbie Ray.
Six of the seven legs on tonight's card load on one latent variable, the run environment. A one factor Gaussian copula at rho 0.35 leaves expected value untouched and moves the card's standard deviation from 4.03 units to 4.58, with the fifth percentile falling from minus 6.83 to minus 8.07.
An alternate -1 run line has three outcomes, not two, so a win probability cannot price it. The model backs the market's implied push mass out of the posted numbers, tests it against 1,935 completed games and against Houston's own margin history, then applies the same distributional discipline to a Detroit team total.
A partition model splits the Yankees and Orioles game at Camden Yards into starter outs and relief outs, prices each bucket with 2026 rate data, and finds New York ahead in both halves.
Every announced starter on the fifteen-game board ranked by strikeout rate minus walk rate, then checked against a nine-leg card that sized its three totals in exactly the same order.
A bullpen exposure audit of the two-play Monday card: Boston relieves at a 2.98 ERA, Oakland at 5.70, and the projected runs allowed gaps land at 1.93 and 1.39.
Two of today's six starters have thrown eleven innings all season, too small a sample for ERA. This audit runs the three-play card on strikeout-minus-walk rate instead.
Each of today's six prices is measured twice, once against the club that has to perform and once against the ballpark hosting it. On the Rangers moneyline the two counts sit twenty points apart.
Both of tonight's plays buy a base rate short of its break-even. The Angels under 3.5 needs 0.9 points of pitching effect from Jacob deGrom; the Phillies-Twins over 8.5 asks Aaron Nola's home run rate for 6.8.
Petco Park has produced 7.75 combined runs per game this season and Sutter Health Park 12.19. Every total on the card, split into a venue baseline and the residual its starter still has to supply.
A regression-style read of three plays: a starter's own presence lowering his team's scoring, a trade-split pitcher line that is really two pitchers, and a model that disagrees with its own card.
Cam Schlittler's 2.26 ERA is the average of a 1.10 road season and a 4.32 home season, and he pitches at home. A split-level decomposition of seven plays, including where the card contradicts our own team-total projection.
A six-play decomposition that sorts tonight's card by what actually explains each price: rate stats on four plays, and roster quality on two where the starting pitcher's own numbers point the other way.
Free MLB projections and WAR-based analysis with public grading standards, source notes, and price-sensitivity warnings.
Static crawl links updated August 24, 2026. These links are present in raw HTML for search engines.