Data-Driven MLB Predictions for 2026

Paul Goldschmidt Returns to Yankees on $4 Million Deal: A Statistical Deep Dive Into His Declining Production and What the Advanced Numbers Say About His 2026 Platoon Value

February 7, 2026

The New York Yankees have re-signed Paul Goldschmidt to a one-year, $4 million contract, bringing back the 38-year-old first baseman for a second season in the Bronx. But this is not the Goldschmidt the Yankees signed last year. That version came with a $12.5 million price tag and the expectation that he would be the everyday first baseman. This version comes at less than a third of the cost and is projected for a short-side platoon role after Ben Rice outplayed him for playing time during the 2025 season. Goldschmidt reportedly passed on more money from other teams to stay in New York. From a pure analytics standpoint, the question is straightforward: what does a $4 million investment in a declining 38-year-old actually buy you in projected value?

The Decline Trajectory in Numbers: Goldschmidt's statistical decline has been one of the more dramatic falloffs in recent baseball history. This is a player who won the 2022 NL MVP with the Cardinals, slashing .317/.404/.578 with 35 home runs and a league-leading 178 OPS+. He was one of the best hitters on the planet just four seasons ago. In 2023, the numbers dipped to .268/.365/.441 with 25 home runs. Still productive, but the power was fading and the batting average dropped nearly 50 points. In 2024, his final year in St. Louis, the floor fell out: .245/.302/.414 with 22 home runs in 154 games. The OPS+ cratered to 100, meaning he was exactly league average at the plate. That is a shocking number for a former MVP.

Then came 2025 in New York. Goldschmidt signed a $12.5 million contract to be the everyday first baseman, and the results were worse than anyone projected. By midseason, the Yankees had seen enough and started giving Ben Rice more at-bats at first base. Rice, younger and cheaper, outproduced Goldschmidt in nearly every offensive category. The message was clear: the everyday role was no longer Goldschmidt's.

The Platoon Split Argument: The analytical case for bringing Goldschmidt back rests almost entirely on his platoon splits. Throughout his career, Goldschmidt has been significantly better against left-handed pitching than right-handed pitching. In his prime years, this split was manageable because he was so good against both sides that it did not matter. But as his overall production has declined, the platoon gap has become the critical variable.

Against left-handed pitchers during his career, Goldschmidt has historically posted an OPS roughly 80 to 100 points higher than against right-handers. For a player whose overall bat can no longer support everyday at-bats, limiting him to the favorable side of the platoon becomes the most efficient way to extract remaining value. A platoon-only role means Goldschmidt would face roughly 180 to 220 plate appearances against lefties, shielding him from the right-handed matchups where his bat speed decline is most exposed.

WAR Projection and Dollar-Per-Win Analysis: Here is where the analytics get interesting for the $4 million price tag. A full-time player producing at league-average levels is worth roughly 2.0 WAR over a full season. In a reduced platoon role of 200 to 250 plate appearances, Goldschmidt's projected WAR falls somewhere in the 0.5 to 1.0 range, depending on how effectively the Yankees can deploy him in his high-leverage matchups against lefties.

At $4 million for 0.5 to 1.0 WAR, that puts the cost-per-win in the $4 to $8 million range. In the current free agent market, where a win is valued at approximately $8 to $9 million, this deal is either right at market rate or slightly below depending on where the actual production lands. Compare that to last year's $12.5 million for roughly the same output, and the Yankees clearly got smarter about how they allocated dollars to Goldschmidt's declining skill set.

The Age 38 Season in Historical Context: The data on first basemen playing at age 38 or older is not encouraging. Bill James' age curves show that first basemen typically experience their steepest offensive decline between ages 36 and 38, with power being the first tool to go. The historical batting average for first basemen at age 38 in the modern era hovers around .240 to .250 with significantly reduced extra-base production. Goldschmidt's trajectory aligns almost perfectly with this curve.

Albert Pujols at age 38 hit .245 with 19 home runs. Miguel Cabrera at 38 hit .256 with 15 home runs. Paul Konerko at 38 hit .244 with 12 home runs. The pattern is consistent: even elite first basemen at this age become average-to-below-average hitters. The question is not whether Goldschmidt will decline further. The question is whether the rate of decline makes a $4 million platoon investment worthwhile compared to alternatives.

Defensive Metrics and Baserunning Value: One area where Goldschmidt still provides quietly positive value is his defense at first base. His fielding metrics over the past two seasons have remained slightly above average, with positive Outs Above Average numbers despite his age. He is not the Gold Glove defender he was in his Arizona days, but he remains a reliable glove at first. This matters because in a platoon role where the offensive contribution is marginal, every fraction of a win from other sources becomes meaningful.

On the basepaths, however, the data is less forgiving. Goldschmidt's sprint speed has declined steadily, and his baserunning runs above average have been negative in each of the last three seasons. He is no longer a threat to steal bases or take extra bases on hits to the gap. In a platoon role, this is less of a concern simply because he will be accumulating fewer at-bats and therefore fewer baserunning opportunities, but it is another area where the aging curve is doing what it always does.

Why Goldschmidt Passed on More Money: The fact that Goldschmidt turned down larger offers from other teams to stay with the Yankees at $4 million is the most telling detail in this entire story. It suggests two things. First, the other offers likely came with expectations of a larger role, perhaps everyday at-bats, which would expose his declining skills across a full season of plate appearances. Second, Goldschmidt understands that being a part-time player on a contending team in New York provides something that a full-time role on a lesser team cannot: October baseball. For a player with only one World Series appearance in his career, with the 2023 Cardinals, the chance to compete for a championship apparently outweighed additional salary.

The Analytical Bottom Line: At $4 million, the Yankees are not paying for the Paul Goldschmidt who won an MVP in 2022. They are paying for a veteran platoon bat who provides 0.5 to 1.0 WAR against left-handed pitching, league-average defense at first base, and invaluable clubhouse presence for a team with World Series aspirations. The advanced numbers indicate further decline is virtually certain. His bat speed, exit velocity trends, and age-related performance curves all point in the same direction. But the structure of this deal, reduced salary for a reduced role, shows that the Yankees' analytics department learned from the $12.5 million overpay last season. This is a mathematically sound allocation of resources for a team that already has its core lineup in place and simply needs a reliable left-handed pitching specialist off the bench and in the short side of a first base platoon. At $4 million, the downside is minimal and the upside is a veteran who can still punish lefties in October.

Isaac Paredes Agrees to $9.35M Arbitration Deal With Astros: WAR Projections, Statcast Profile, and What the Advanced Numbers Say About His 2026 Outlook

February 5, 2026

The Houston Astros and infielder Isaac Paredes have avoided arbitration, agreeing to a one-year, $9.35 million deal that includes a $13.35 million club option for 2027. The agreed salary split the difference between Paredes' $9.95 million ask and Houston's $8.75 million offer. From a pure analytics standpoint, this is one of the more interesting arbitration outcomes in baseball this year, because Paredes' traditional numbers and his underlying metrics tell slightly different stories.

The Traditional Stat Line: In 2025, Paredes slashed .254/.352/.458 with 20 home runs in 102 games for the Astros. Those are solid numbers. Good enough to earn an All-Star selection as a replacement for Jose Ramirez. Good enough to justify the $9.35 million salary without much debate. But the surface numbers are where the easy analysis ends.

The Statcast Profile, Where It Gets Complicated: Paredes' 2025 Statcast numbers reveal a profile with real tension between his outcomes and his underlying batted-ball data. His average exit velocity of 87.4 mph is league average at best. His hard-hit rate of 33.6% ranked well below the MLB mean. His barrel percentage of 6.3% is modest for a player whose primary value comes from his bat. These are not numbers you typically associate with a 20-homer hitter.

Here is where it gets analytically interesting. Paredes posted a .353 wOBA against a .320 xwOBA. That 33-point gap suggests he outperformed his batted-ball quality in 2025, meaning some of those results were driven by sequencing, timing, and a healthy dose of situational fortune rather than raw impact. His BABIP ran higher than expected given his exit velocity profile, which raises the question: can he replicate that production in 2026?

WAR Projection and Value Assessment: Despite the concerns in the Statcast data, Paredes still projects as a 2.5 to 3.0 fWAR player for 2026 based on his plate discipline, positional versatility, and proven ability to produce in a lineup slot that generates counting stats. He walks at an above-average rate, he does not chase excessively, and he can play both third base and second base. At $9.35 million, that puts his cost per projected win in the $3.1 to $3.7 million range, which is well below the free-agent market rate of roughly $8 to $9 million per win.

The $13.35 million club option for 2027 includes a fascinating wrinkle: it converts to a mutual option if Paredes finishes top-10 in MVP voting. This is Houston's hedge. If Paredes breaks out into a true star-level performer, they keep him at a discount. If he regresses toward his Statcast-implied true talent level, they maintain the flexibility to decline.

Regression Risk Versus Breakout Potential: The bear case for Paredes in 2026 is straightforward. His 2025 wOBA outran his xwOBA by a significant margin. Players with that kind of overperformance tend to come back to earth the following season. If you adjust his batting line to match his Statcast-expected metrics, you are looking at something closer to .240/.340/.420 with 15 to 17 homers. Still a useful player, but closer to a 2.0 fWAR contributor than a 3.0.

The bull case is equally compelling. Paredes was limited to 102 games in 2025 due to a hamstring injury. Before going down, he was slashing .259/.359/.470 with 19 homers in 94 games, a pace that projected to roughly 27 homers over a full season. A healthy 162-game sample could push his WAR above 3.5, especially if he maintains his All-Star-caliber first-half production. His plate discipline, including a walk rate that consistently sits in the 10 to 12 percent range, gives him a high floor even if the power dips slightly.

Context Within the Astros Lineup: Houston finished 87-75 in 2025, a competitive but not dominant record. Paredes slots into a lineup that includes some of the game's best hitters, meaning he will see better pitches hitting in front of and behind other dangerous bats. Lineup protection is one of those factors that traditional metrics struggle to capture but that can meaningfully impact a hitter's outcomes.

The Astros' decision to structure this deal with a club option rather than pursuing a multi-year extension tells you something about how their analytics department views Paredes. They believe in his floor but want more data before committing long-term. Paredes becomes a free agent after the 2027 season regardless, so this is effectively a two-year audition window where the data will either confirm him as a cornerstone piece or reveal him as a productive-but-replaceable contributor.

The Bottom Line on the Numbers: At $9.35 million, Paredes is being paid roughly at market rate for an arbitration-eligible player with his track record. The analytics suggest mild regression risk from his 2025 output, but even the pessimistic projection gives Houston a player worth his salary. The optimistic projection, one where he stays healthy for 150+ games and his first-half 2025 performance proves to be his actual talent level, makes this deal look like a bargain. For a front office that runs its decisions through expected value calculations, the math checks out either way. This is a fair deal that both sides can live with, and the club option gives Houston the asymmetric upside that smart organizations always want to capture.