PITCHING ANALYTICS 2026
Advanced Metrics, Rotation Rankings & Betting Edges
Key Metrics Explained
Understanding modern pitching metrics is essential for finding betting edges. Traditional stats like ERA and wins are highly team-dependent. These advanced metrics isolate pitcher skill from factors outside their control, giving us a truer picture of performance.
FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching)
Measures what a pitcher's ERA should be based on strikeouts, walks, and home runs—the outcomes a pitcher controls. Useful for identifying pitchers whose ERA will regress up or down.
xERA (Expected ERA)
Uses exit velocity and launch angle data to estimate what ERA a pitcher deserves based on quality of contact allowed. Excellent for finding undervalued arms.
K-BB% (Strikeout minus Walk Rate)
The most stable predictor of future success. Elite pitchers have K-BB% above 20%. This stat removes BABIP variance and isolates pure command.
CSW% (Called Strikes + Whiffs)
Percentage of pitches that result in a called strike or swing-and-miss. The best indicator of stuff quality. Elite is above 30%.
2026 CY YOUNG PREDICTIONS
Best Cy Young Bet
Corbin Burnes +600 - Moving to Arizona puts him in a superior run environment compared to Baltimore. The Diamondbacks will compete for a pennant, giving him wins (which voters still love). His FIP has been elite for five straight years. At 6-1, there's real value here.
2026 Rotation Rankings
We project team rotation performance using weighted averages of FIP, xERA, and K-BB% for projected starters. Depth matters—we account for the likely 5th starter usage and injury risk.
Pitchers to Target for Strikeout Props
Strikeout props are the most profitable pitcher market when you identify mismatches. These arms have elite whiff rates that consistently exceed their lines.
| Pitcher | Team | K/9 | CSW% | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | Detroit | 12.1 | 33.2% | Target OVER vs. high-K teams (SEA, CLE, CHW) |
| Spencer Strider | Atlanta | 13.8 | 35.1% | Coming off injury but stuff is electric when healthy |
| Shohei Ohtani | Los Angeles | 11.4 | 31.8% | Returning to mound in 2026. Lines will be set cautiously. |
| Dylan Cease | Toronto | 10.8 | 29.4% | High-variance. Target against patient lineups. |
| Pablo López | Minnesota | 10.2 | 28.7% | Underrated. Books set his lines too low. |
Strikeout Prop Strategy
Target OVER on elite arms against teams with high K rates: Seattle (25.1% K rate), Cleveland (24.8%), and the White Sox (26.3%). These matchups consistently produce 7+ strikeout games. Fade strikeout props against contact-heavy teams like Kansas City, San Francisco, and Houston.
Bullpen Value Rankings
Bullpen depth wins in October. Teams with elite backend arms have massive edges in close games and total unders. Here are the bullpens to trust and fade in 2026.
| Rank | Team | 2025 ERA | Key Arms | Betting Angle |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Baltimore Orioles | 2.89 | Helsley, Cano, Perez | Target Baltimore UNDERS in close games |
| 2 | Cleveland Guardians | 2.94 | Clase, Karinchak, Stephan | Elite closer + depth. Trust late leads. |
| 3 | Arizona Diamondbacks | 3.21 | Sewald, Ginkel, Castro | Improved bullpen supports Burnes addition |
| 28 | Colorado Rockies | 5.42 | Bird, Lawrence, TBD | Fade Rockies heavily when game is close |
| 29 | Chicago White Sox | 5.67 | Rebuilding | Live OVERS whenever they lead late |
| 30 | Miami Marlins | 5.81 | Scott, Cabrera | One of worst bullpens in baseball |
Key Betting Takeaways
1. Target FIP/ERA Gaps
When a pitcher's FIP is significantly lower than their ERA (0.50+ difference), they're due for regression toward their true talent level. These arms are undervalued by the market. Conversely, fade pitchers with FIP higher than ERA—they've been lucky.
2. First 5 Innings (F5) Bets
If you love a starter but hate the bullpen, bet F5 lines. This isolates the starter's performance and removes bullpen variance. Great for backing aces on teams with weak relief corps.
3. Strikeout Correlation to Unders
High-strikeout pitching matchups correlate strongly with unders. When both starters have K/9 above 9.5, the under hits at 56% historically. The reason: strikeouts remove BABIP variance and keep balls out of play.