2026 DIVISION PREDICTIONS
Projected Standings & Betting Angles for All Six Divisions
THE OFFSEASON EFFECT
The most active offseason in recent memory has reshuffled division dynamics across baseball. Juan Soto's $765M Mets deal, Corbin Burnes to Arizona, and Baltimore's spending spree have created massive line movement. Our projections incorporate all signings through December 30, 2025.
AL East
American League| Team | Proj. Wins | Win Total Line | vs. 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Yankees | 94 | 93.5 | -8 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 92 | 90.5 | +9 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 87 | 85.5 | +13 |
| Boston Red Sox | 82 | 81.5 | +4 |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 76 | 77.5 | -4 |
The Yankees lost Juan Soto to the crosstown Mets and haven't adequately replaced his production. They remain talented but the lineup has a massive hole. Baltimore went all-in with Pete Alonso, Ryan Helsley, and Shane Baz—their window is now. Toronto added Dylan Cease and should bounce back after their disastrous 2025 campaign.
The division is wide open. New York's pitching remains elite but their offense took a significant step back. Baltimore has the young core and added the pieces to compete. This could come down to September.
Betting Recommendation
Orioles OVER 90.5 wins (-110) - This team addressed every weakness. Adley Rutschman is a superstar, Gunnar Henderson is an MVP candidate, and now they have a shutdown closer in Helsley. Their rotation was always underrated. This is their year to win the division.
AL Central
American League| Team | Proj. Wins | Win Total Line | vs. 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Guardians | 88 | 86.5 | -4 |
| Kansas City Royals | 84 | 82.5 | -2 |
| Detroit Tigers | 79 | 78.5 | +5 |
| Minnesota Twins | 76 | 77.5 | -6 |
| Chicago White Sox | 58 | 60.5 | +17 |
Cleveland remains the class of this division, but the gap is shrinking. Their pitching depth is unmatched in the Central, and their young hitters are entering their primes. Kansas City's breakout 2024 wasn't a fluke—they're built to compete annually now with Bobby Witt Jr. leading the charge.
Detroit is the sleeper here. Tarik Skubal anchors a rotation that can compete with anyone, and their offensive pieces are starting to click. Minnesota feels directionless after losing key pieces. The White Sox can only go up after their historically bad 2024.
Betting Recommendation
Tigers OVER 78.5 wins (-115) - Skubal is a Cy Young contender. Jackson Jobe is the next ace. Their farm system is finally producing. This team is on the rise and 78.5 is too low for a squad with two potential frontline starters and a young core finding its footing.
AL West
American League| Team | Proj. Wins | Win Total Line | vs. 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 91 | 89.5 | +3 |
| Seattle Mariners | 86 | 85.5 | +1 |
| Texas Rangers | 82 | 83.5 | -2 |
| Los Angeles Angels | 70 | 71.5 | +5 |
| Oakland Athletics | 62 | 63.5 | -6 |
The Astros dynasty isn't dead yet. They've retooled around their core and remain the team to beat in this division. They lost Framber Valdez to free agency but added Christian Walker's bat. Their lineup still has pop. Seattle desperately needed to add bats and made moves to address their offensive woes—whether it's enough remains to be seen.
Texas is in a weird spot after their 2023 World Series run. Injuries derailed 2024-25, and the roster feels like it's treading water. The Angels and A's are rebuilding with different levels of commitment and resources.
Betting Recommendation
Astros OVER 89.5 wins (-105) - Never bet against this organization. They've won seven of the last eight division titles (only missing in the shortened 2020 season) and there's no reason to expect that changes. 89.5 is disrespectful to a team with their track record and talent level.
NL East
National League| Team | Proj. Wins | Win Total Line | vs. 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 97 | 95.5 | +8 |
| Atlanta Braves | 91 | 90.5 | +2 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 90 | 89.5 | -5 |
| Washington Nationals | 73 | 72.5 | +2 |
| Miami Marlins | 64 | 65.5 | +2 |
Juan Soto changes everything. The Mets now have the best lineup in baseball with Soto, Francisco Lindor, and their supporting cast. Steve Cohen's checkbook turned a good team into a superteam overnight. They're the World Series favorites for good reason.
Atlanta gets healthier and remains dangerous—never count out a Brian Snitker team. Philadelphia lost some luster after back-to-back playoff disappointments, and their window might be closing. The division is a three-team race at the top with a massive gap to the bottom two.
Betting Recommendation
Mets OVER 95.5 wins (-110) - This is the most talented roster in the National League. Soto in the middle of that lineup is terrifying for opposing pitchers. They'll run away with this division early and cruise to 97+ wins.
NL Central
National League| Team | Proj. Wins | Win Total Line | vs. 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Milwaukee Brewers | 87 | 85.5 | -6 |
| St. Louis Cardinals | 82 | 80.5 | +4 |
| Chicago Cubs | 80 | 79.5 | +3 |
| Cincinnati Reds | 78 | 77.5 | +1 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates | 74 | 73.5 | +2 |
Milwaukee keeps doing more with less, but losing Corbin Burnes hurts. Their player development remains elite, but the rotation took a major hit. The Cardinals are in transition mode with a mix of veterans and young talent trying to find the right balance.
The Cubs, Reds, and Pirates are all competitive but flawed. This division could see any of the top four teams win it, but none of them profile as serious World Series threats. It's the weakest division in baseball and the winner might barely crack 90 wins.
Betting Recommendation
Cardinals OVER 80.5 wins (-110) - This line is too low for a franchise with their track record. The young pitching is ready to contribute, and their veteran core still has gas in the tank. 82-84 wins feels right.
NL West
National League| Team | Proj. Wins | Win Total Line | vs. 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 100 | 98.5 | -4 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks | 90 | 88.5 | +5 |
| San Diego Padres | 87 | 86.5 | +3 |
| San Francisco Giants | 76 | 75.5 | +1 |
| Colorado Rockies | 59 | 61.5 | -2 |
The Dodgers remain the class of the National League. They don't rebuild, they reload—and they've done it again. Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman give them the best lineup in baseball. Their pitching depth is absurd. They'll win 100 games without breaking a sweat.
Arizona added Corbin Burnes and immediately becomes a legitimate pennant contender. The Padres have the talent but consistency issues. San Francisco is stuck in the middle, not good enough to compete and not bad enough to rebuild properly. Colorado is just trying to survive.
Betting Recommendation
Diamondbacks OVER 88.5 wins (-115) - Burnes completes this roster. They were one pitcher away from being a real threat, and now they have an ace. Zac Gallen, Burnes, and that young lineup? This team is dangerous and 88.5 is too low.
BEST BETS SUMMARY
Top Plays: Orioles OVER 90.5, Mets OVER 95.5, Diamondbacks OVER 88.5
Value Plays: Tigers OVER 78.5, Cardinals OVER 80.5
Fade: Yankees win total (lost Soto, no replacement), Rockies anything