MLB Betting Fundamentals: Complete Guide
Introduction
Understanding baseball betting fundamentals is essential before diving into advanced handicapping. This guide covers the core bet types, terminology, and concepts you'll encounter when betting on MLB games.
Baseball offers unique betting opportunities compared to other sports. With 162 regular season games per team and daily action throughout the summer, disciplined handicappers can find consistent value that doesn't exist in lower-volume sports.
Core Bet Types
Moneyline (ML)
The most common baseball bet. Simply pick the winner of the game. Odds are expressed as positive or negative numbers.
+145: Bet $100 to win $145 (Padres are underdogs)
Baseball moneylines offer more variance than other sports. Underdogs win roughly 42-44% of games, making plus-money plays viable long-term.
Run Line (RL)
Baseball's version of the point spread. Almost always set at 1.5 runs.
+1.5: Rays can lose by 1 run and still cover
Run line favorites at plus money can offer excellent value when a team has a dominant starter facing a weak offense. Look for situations where the favorite's true win margin distribution favors 2+ run wins.
Totals (Over/Under)
Bet on the combined run total of both teams.
Under 8.5: Combined score must be 8 or fewer runs
Totals are heavily influenced by starting pitchers, weather (wind, humidity), and park factors. Always check these variables before betting.
First 5 Innings (F5)
Bets that only count the first 5 innings of the game, isolating starting pitcher performance from bullpen variance.
Giants/Rockies F5 Over 4.5 (-115)
F5 lines are ideal when you trust a starting pitcher but not their team's bullpen. They also provide value when facing volatile late-game closers.
Key Concept: Juice/Vig
The "juice" or "vig" is the sportsbook's commission built into every bet. Standard juice is -110 on each side, meaning you bet $110 to win $100. Shopping for better lines (-105 or lower) significantly impacts long-term profitability.
Baseball-Specific Factors
Starting Pitchers
The most important factor in any MLB game. Pitching matchups can swing lines by 50-100 cents or more. Always verify starting pitchers before betting—lines are set with "listed" pitchers and may change if starters are scratched.
Park Factors
Ballparks dramatically impact run scoring:
| Park Type | Examples | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Hitter-friendly | Coors Field, Great American Ballpark | +15-25% run scoring |
| Pitcher-friendly | Oracle Park, Petco Park | -10-15% run scoring |
| Neutral | Dodger Stadium, Yankee Stadium | Close to league average |
Weather Conditions
- Wind: Wind blowing out increases home runs and totals
- Temperature: Hot weather (80+) increases ball carry
- Humidity: High humidity slightly reduces ball carry
- Altitude: Denver's thin air dramatically increases offense
Bullpen Usage
Check bullpen availability before betting totals or late-game plays. Teams with overworked relievers may turn to lower-quality arms, affecting late-inning outcomes.
Bankroll Fundamentals
Unit Sizing
Professional bettors use "units" to standardize bet sizes regardless of bankroll:
- 1 Unit: Standard play (1-2% of bankroll)
- 2 Units: Higher confidence plays
- 3+ Units: Rare, maximum conviction spots
Line Shopping
Always compare lines across multiple sportsbooks. Over a season, getting an extra 5 cents per bet translates to significant profit. Key lines to watch:
- Even money (pick 'em) games
- 8 and 8.5 run totals (key numbers)
- -150 favorites (threshold for run line alternatives)
Common Mistakes to Avoid
1. Ignoring Roster Changes
Injuries, call-ups, and lineup changes happen daily. Lines move for a reason. Always verify current rosters before betting.
2. Overvaluing Recent Results
A team's last 5-10 games are small samples. Hot/cold streaks regress. Focus on season-long metrics and matchup-specific advantages.
3. Betting Every Game
With 15 games daily, the temptation to bet everything is strong. Selectivity is essential. The best handicappers pass on more games than they bet.
4. Ignoring Closing Line Value
Track where lines close versus where you bet them. Consistently beating the closing line is the strongest indicator of long-term profitability.
Ready for Advanced Analysis?
Now that you understand the fundamentals, explore our Advanced Stats Hub and Trend Analysis to take your handicapping to the next level.