The 2026 Landscape: A New Era Begins
The 2025-26 MLB offseason has been nothing short of transformative. With Juan Soto's historic $765 million contract reshaping the Mets' championship window, Corbin Burnes joining Baltimore's already-potent rotation, and several contenders making aggressive moves, the 2026 season promises to be one of the most competitive campaigns in recent memory.
Our projection models have processed over 2.3 million data points from the 2025 season, incorporating aging curves, park factors, and roster construction analysis to generate what we believe are the most accurate preseason projections available. Let's dive into our division-by-division breakdown.
American League East
The AL East arms race continues unabated. The Yankees' decision to let Soto walk to their crosstown rivals has fundamentally altered the balance of power in baseball's most competitive division.
AL East Projected Standings
Baltimore Orioles: The Complete Package
Adding Corbin Burnes to a rotation that already featured Grayson Rodriguez and prospects-turned-aces creates arguably the deepest pitching staff in baseball. Gunnar Henderson's MVP-caliber 2025 campaign (41 HR, 6.8 WAR) should continue into his age-25 season, and the Orioles' farm system remains stocked despite graduation of several key pieces.
The key question in Baltimore isn't whether they'll contend, it's whether their window has already peaked. Burnes' contract runs through 2029, giving them a legitimate championship window, but the Yankees aren't going quietly.
New York Yankees: Reload Mode
Losing Soto stings, but the Yankees pivoted quickly, landing premium starting pitching and reinforcing their bullpen. Aaron Judge remains the anchor, and the Yankees' ability to manufacture offense from their depth pieces will be tested. Our models project them as the most likely Wild Card team in the American League.
American League Central
The Guardians proved they belong in 2025, and their young core only gets better. But Cleveland's division is far from a cakewalk with the Twins and Tigers both making moves to close the gap.
AL Central Projected Standings
American League West
Houston's dynasty hasn't ended yet. Despite roster turnover and the departure of key veterans, the Astros' organizational depth and front office acumen keeps them atop this division. The Rangers are retooling after their 2023 championship, while the Mariners continue searching for offensive consistency to complement their elite pitching.
AL West Projected Standings
National League East
The Soto signing changes everything. The Mets enter 2026 as legitimate World Series favorites, but the defending NL champion Phillies and the always-dangerous Braves won't roll over.
NL East Projected Standings
Key Storyline: Soto + Lindor = Elite
Our models project the Soto-Lindor combination to produce 14+ combined WAR in 2026. With Pete Alonso's power (assuming he returns) and a revamped rotation, the Mets have legitimate 100-win upside.
National League Central
The Cubs and Cardinals enter a critical year. Both franchises have championship pedigree but have underperformed in recent seasons. The Pirates' rebuild is showing signs of life with a core of young talent ready to take the next step.
NL Central Projected Standings
National League West
The Dodgers remain the class of the division, even as the Padres push to close the gap. San Diego's aggressive offseason moves and the continued development of their young core makes this a two-horse race for the foreseeable future.
NL West Projected Standings
World Series Odds Analysis
Based on our projections and current market odds, here are the best value plays for 2026 World Series futures:
| Team | Current Odds | Our Implied Probability | Value Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | +400 | 14.2% | Fair |
| New York Mets | +550 | 12.8% | Slight Value |
| Baltimore Orioles | +800 | 9.5% | Strong Value |
| Philadelphia Phillies | +900 | 8.1% | Fair |
| Houston Astros | +1200 | 7.2% | Strong Value |
Our Best Bet: Baltimore Orioles +800
The Orioles offer the best combination of projection strength and market inefficiency. The Burnes addition addresses their only weakness (front-line starting pitching), and their young core is entering prime years. At 8-1, there's significant value compared to our implied 9.5% championship probability.
Key Variables to Monitor
Health: As always, injuries will shape the season. Our projections assume league-average injury rates, but any significant IL time for stars like Judge, Soto, or Burnes would dramatically shift the landscape.
Prospect Graduation: Several impact prospects are poised to debut in 2026. Teams with top-tier farm systems (Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Cleveland) have built-in insurance if veterans underperform.
Trade Deadline: The July market will be fascinating. Several fringe contenders (Tigers, Cardinals, Padres) could become sellers or buyers depending on first-half performance.
We'll be updating these projections throughout spring training as rosters finalize and more information becomes available. Check back regularly for our latest analysis.