Published: January 26, 2026 | mlbprediction.com
Every offseason reshapes the competitive landscape of Major League Baseball, but the 2025-26 hot stove cycle has been particularly active. Several franchises have made aggressive moves to reposition themselves, and the win total market is already reacting. Today we're running the numbers on five teams ESPN has identified as potential breakout candidates, evaluating each through the lens of advanced analytics, projected WAR gains, and historical precedent for these types of offseason overhauls.
Before diving into individual teams, let's establish how we evaluate "breakout" potential from a statistical perspective. A true breakout isn't just about adding talent. It's about adding the right talent to address specific inefficiencies. The teams that make the largest year-over-year jumps tend to share common traits: they add above-average WAR contributors to positions that were previously below replacement level, they improve in areas that have high leverage on run differential, and they do so while maintaining existing strengths rather than creating new weaknesses through roster turnover.
With that framework in mind, here are the five teams the data suggests are positioned for significant improvement in 2026.
The Cubs' acquisition of Alex Bregman on a 5-year, $175 million deal represents one of the most significant roster upgrades of the offseason. The market reacted immediately, pushing Chicago's win total from 87.5 to 89.5. That two-win jump in the betting market is notable because it signals that oddsmakers see Bregman as more than just a lineup addition. He fills a positional need while adding elite bat-to-ball skills, power production, and defensive reliability at third base.
From an analytical standpoint, the Cubs' breakout case hinges on whether their pitching infrastructure can support the offensive improvement. Adding a hitter of Bregman's caliber to a lineup that already features young talent gives Chicago one of the more balanced offensive profiles in the National League Central. The question isn't whether the offense gets better. The numbers make that a near certainty. The question is whether the run prevention side holds up well enough to translate those additional runs scored into actual wins.
Historically, teams that add a single high-WAR position player in the offseason see diminishing returns if the rest of the roster doesn't complement the addition. However, the Cubs are adding Bregman to a foundation that already showed signs of competitiveness. This isn't a rebuild. It's an acceleration, and the data supports the market's confidence in a two-win improvement at minimum.
Baltimore's offseason has been nothing short of transformative. The Orioles added Pete Alonso on a 5-year, $155 million deal and locked up closer Ryan Helsley on a 2-year, $28 million deal. The combined impact pushed Baltimore's win total from 87.5 to 91.5, a four-win market adjustment that is among the largest we've seen for any team this offseason.
The Alonso addition addresses a clear positional deficiency. First base production has been inconsistent for Baltimore in recent seasons, and adding one of the premier power bats in baseball gives them a middle-of-the-order anchor. But what makes the Orioles' breakout case statistically compelling is the Helsley signing. Adding an elite closer stabilizes the back end of the bullpen, and bullpen quality has an outsized impact on one-run game outcomes. Teams that improve their bullpen by even one win above replacement level in high-leverage situations tend to see a disproportionate increase in close-game win percentage.
The data suggests Baltimore's four-win market move is justified. They improved both their run-scoring ceiling (Alonso) and their run-prevention floor (Helsley). That's the kind of dual-vector improvement that historically correlates with legitimate breakout seasons. At 91.5 wins, Baltimore is now projected as a legitimate contender in the American League East.
Toronto's decision to invest 7 years and $210 million in Dylan Cease is a bet on the data, and the numbers support it. Cease is the kind of pitcher that projection systems love: high strikeout rate, improving command trajectory, and the type of raw stuff that plays up in high-leverage situations. The Blue Jays' win total jumped from 85.5 to 89.5 after the signing, a four-win market adjustment that reflects just how impactful a frontline starting pitcher can be on a team's overall projection.
From an advanced metrics perspective, adding a pitcher of Cease's caliber to a rotation creates cascading benefits. It pushes every other starter down one slot, meaning the fourth and fifth starters face less pressure. It reduces bullpen workload because a quality starter who works deep into games preserves your highest-leverage relief arms. And it improves the team's overall expected run prevention in ways that compound over 162 games. The Blue Jays were the 2025 World Series runners-up (losing to the Dodgers 4-3), and this addition signals they're not content with just getting there. They want to win it.
The Braves represent a different kind of breakout candidate, one driven by internal improvement rather than external acquisition. Atlanta's analytical infrastructure is among the best in baseball, and their development pipeline consistently produces contributors who outperform their projections at the major league level. ESPN identified the Braves as a breakout candidate based on the expected health returns and maturation of their existing roster rather than headline-grabbing free agent additions.
This is the type of breakout that the market is slowest to price in. Adding a $175 million free agent generates immediate win total movement. Getting 30 games back from a previously injured starter does not, even though the statistical impact can be comparable. The Braves' breakout case rests on regression to the mean from a health perspective and continued development from their young core. Historically, teams with Atlanta's organizational profile, strong development, elite analytics, and a track record of winning, tend to bounce back aggressively after down years. The model likes Atlanta as a value play precisely because the market is focused on the big-spending teams while overlooking the team that might simply get healthy.
Pittsburgh represents the most speculative breakout candidate on this list, but the underlying data is intriguing. The Pirates have invested heavily in player development and analytics infrastructure over the past several seasons, and their farm system has been generating prospects who are now approaching major league readiness. ESPN flagged them as a breakout candidate because the talent pipeline is beginning to converge with major league opportunity.
The statistical case for Pittsburgh depends almost entirely on whether their young players collectively take the expected developmental step. Projection systems are bullish on individual Pirates prospects, but team-level breakouts driven by multiple young players simultaneously emerging are inherently volatile. When it works, the impact is dramatic. When it doesn't, the timeline simply pushes back another year. The Pirates are worth monitoring closely during spring training for signs that the talent is translating, but from a data perspective, they remain the highest-variance play on this list.
The data tells a clear story. The teams positioned for the largest year-over-year improvements are the ones who addressed specific analytical deficiencies with targeted, high-impact additions. The Orioles improved by a market-estimated four wins. The Blue Jays improved by four. The Cubs improved by two. Meanwhile, the Dodgers continue to operate at a stratospheric level, adding Kyle Tucker on a 4-year, $240 million deal to push their projection to 98.5 wins, a number that would represent historic dominance if achieved.
For data-driven bettors and projection enthusiasts, the key takeaway is that breakout seasons are rarely random. They are the predictable outcome of specific, measurable improvements applied to existing roster foundations. The five teams on this list have each made decisions that the numbers support. Whether the projections hold will be determined on the field, but the statistical inputs have never looked stronger for this particular group of franchises.