🏆 2026 MLB Division Predictions
WAR-based projections for all 6 MLB divisions. Our models combine team WAR, roster changes, and historical trends to project win totals and division odds. Updated as offseason moves happen.
⚾
American League
Combined Team WAR: 131.8 | Avg Win Total: 81.0
AL East
Projected Leader: Baltimore Orioles
1
Baltimore Orioles
+Alonso
43.8
WAR
91.5
Wins
2
New York Yankees
43.2
WAR
90.5
Wins
3
Toronto Blue Jays
+Cease +Okamoto
41.5
WAR
89.5
Wins
4
Tampa Bay Rays
35.2
WAR
82.0
Wins
5
Boston Red Sox
33.8
WAR
79.5
Wins
Key Edge: Orioles' pitching depth + Alonso power. Blue Jays' Cease addition makes them dark horse. BAL Over 91.5
AL Central
Projected Leader: Cleveland Guardians
1
Cleveland Guardians
38.5
WAR
86.5
Wins
2
Minnesota Twins
35.8
WAR
83.0
Wins
3
Kansas City Royals
32.2
WAR
78.5
Wins
4
Detroit Tigers
29.5
WAR
74.5
Wins
5
Chicago White Sox
22.8
WAR
65.5
Wins
Key Edge: Cleveland's #1 ranked farm system projects 8.5 fWAR pipeline. White Sox full rebuild mode. CLE Over 86.5
AL West
Projected Leader: Houston Astros
1
Houston Astros
44.1
WAR
92.5
Wins
2
Texas Rangers
40.2
WAR
88.5
Wins
3
Seattle Mariners
+Naylor
38.8
WAR
86.0
Wins
4
Los Angeles Angels
30.5
WAR
75.5
Wins
5
Oakland Athletics
24.2
WAR
68.5
Wins
Key Edge: Houston's 15.1 rotation fWAR leads AL. Rangers rotation now 6th in MLB at 14.2 fWAR. HOU Over 92.5
⚾
National League
Combined Team WAR: 136.4 | Avg Win Total: 81.0
NL East
Projected Leader: Philadelphia Phillies
1
Philadelphia Phillies
+Schwarber ext
44.5
WAR
94.5
Wins
2
New York Mets
+Bichette +Peralta
42.8
WAR
93.7
Wins
3
Atlanta Braves
41.2
WAR
91.0
Wins
4
Washington Nationals
28.5
WAR
73.0
Wins
5
Miami Marlins
24.8
WAR
68.5
Wins
Key Edge: Mets' Bichette/Peralta additions compress division odds. NL East should be a 3-team race. NYM Over 93.5
NL Central
Projected Leader: Chicago Cubs
1
Chicago Cubs
+Bregman
40.2
WAR
89.5
Wins
2
Milwaukee Brewers
37.5
WAR
85.5
Wins
3
St. Louis Cardinals
34.8
WAR
82.0
Wins
4
Cincinnati Reds
32.5
WAR
79.0
Wins
5
Pittsburgh Pirates
28.2
WAR
72.5
Wins
Key Edge: Bregman adds +2.5 WAR to Cubs. Win total jumped from 87.5 to 89.5. Division favorite now. CHC Over 89.5
NL West
Projected Leader: Los Angeles Dodgers
1
Los Angeles Dodgers
+Tucker
52.4
WAR
106.2
Wins
2
San Diego Padres
42.8
WAR
91.5
Wins
3
San Francisco Giants
+Arraez +Bader
37.8
WAR
82.1
Wins
4
Arizona Diamondbacks
35.2
WAR
80.5
Wins
5
Colorado Rockies
25.5
WAR
67.5
Wins
Key Edge: Dodgers' 52.4 WAR leads MLB by 8+ wins. Ohtani's 11-12 combined WAR dominates. Giants Over attractive at 79.5 line. SF Over 79.5