⚾ DIAMOND EDGE

Starters: Chris Sale returns from the IL to face Cristopher Sánchez in a lefty-lefty duel. Sale posted a 2.52 ERA before the rib injury, and Sánchez has carried a sub-3.00 ERA deep into August.

Run environment: Citizens Bank has played closer to neutral this season and both clubs are comfortable leaning on quality relief in tighter games.

Matchup notes: Sale’s strikeout mix vs a contact-leaning Philadelphia lineup and Sánchez’s elite changeup to neutralize Atlanta’s righty power set a tone for a lower-variance start.

Pick: Under 7.5 (−110)

Pitching edge: Rookie RHP Cam Schlittler has surged since debuting in July, allowing just 1 ER over his last 17⅔ IP with 20 K. He profiles as a strike-thrower with carry up in the zone.

Opponent form: Chicago ranks near the bottom of MLB in OPS and batting average, struggling to sustain rallies and do damage with runners on.

Support: The Yankees bullpen remains a strength, increasing the squeeze once Schlittler exits.

Pick: White Sox Team Total UNDER 3.5 (−140)

Park: Coors Field’s altitude boosts carry and punishes spin, elevating extra-base damage and overall run scoring.

Starters: Javier Assad draws rookie McCade Brown, who makes his Coors debut. Rookie command in this park is a volatile combo, and Chicago’s bats are live after an 11–7 win last night.

Pens: Colorado’s relief group has struggled this season, keeping late scoring firmly in play.

Pick: OVER 11 (−110)

Starters: Kyle Hendricks and Spencer Arrighetti project for contact and baserunners. Hendricks’ pitch-to-contact profile in a power park plus Arrighetti’s walk and barrel issues create multiple scoring paths.

Lineup angle: Houston’s core has torched right-handed pitching at home, and the Angels’ bullpen has been vulnerable.

Pick: OVER 9 (−110)

Early scoring angle: Thin air plus a rookie’s first Coors exposure can snowball quickly. With Chicago’s lineup hot and Colorado’s home splits better than on the road, early traffic should convert.

Pick: FIRST 5 OVER 5.5 (−130)

Paul Skenes vs Payton Tolle | 7:10 PM ET

This line is absolutely criminal, folks. We're getting the National League Cy Young frontrunner at essentially a pick'em price against Boston, and I'm here for every penny of it.

Paul Skenes has been nothing short of dominant this season. When your FIP is actually lower than your ERA, you know you're dealing with elite stuff. The kid is striking out 11.3 batters per nine innings while walking fewer than 2.5 - that's video game numbers right there.

But here's what really caught my eye: Skenes has made 23 starts this year, and in 18 of them, he's gone at least 6 innings while allowing 2 runs or fewer. That's a 78% clip of quality-plus starts. Meanwhile, Boston is throwing out Payton Tolle, who most casual fans have probably never heard of - and for good reason.

The Red Sox are 15-18 against right-handed starters this season, and they're particularly vulnerable to power arms. Skenes' four-seam fastball averages 98.2 mph with 2,600+ RPM spin rate - the kind of heater that makes even good hitters look silly.

The kicker? PNC Park has actually been slightly pitcher-friendly this year (-3% on home runs), so we're not worried about any ballpark nonsense. This should be Pirates -170 or higher, but we're getting it at basically even money.

Matthew Liberatore vs Zac Littell | 6:40 PM ET

I'm going contrarian here in Cincinnati, and the numbers back up this play in a big way. The public is all over the Reds at home (67% of the betting handle), but they're missing some key details that create real value on the Cardinals.

First, let's talk about Great American Ball Park. Yes, it's hitter-friendly with a +26% home run factor, but here's what most people don't realize - the Cardinals actually perform better on the road than at home this season. Their road OPS is 47 points higher, and they're averaging 0.8 more runs per game away from Busch Stadium.

Matthew Liberatore has quietly been one of baseball's most improved pitchers over the last two months. After a rocky start, he's posted a 3.19 ERA over his last 12 starts with a much-improved 22.4% strikeout rate. His slider has become a legitimate weapon, generating a 34% whiff rate against right-handed hitters.

On the flip side, Zac Littell has been homer-prone all season, allowing 1.4 dingers per nine innings. In a ballpark that amplifies home runs by over 25%, that's a recipe for disaster.

Here's the clincher: these teams split their season series 2-2, with each game decided by 2 runs or fewer. We're getting plus-money on the road dog in what projects as a coin-flip game.

Zac Gallen vs Blake Snell | 10:10 PM ET

This total is straight-up disrespectful to two elite offenses, and I'm smashing the over with confidence. Let me break down why this 8.5 number is about 1.5 runs too low.

Dodger Stadium has completely changed this season, folks. The ballpark that was once known as a pitcher's paradise now sports a +27% home run factor - that's second in all of baseball behind only Great American Ball Park. The humidor changes, atmospheric conditions, whatever you want to blame it on - bombs are flying out of Chavez Ravine like never before.

Now let's talk pitching concerns. Zac Gallen has been getting absolutely rocked with a 5.13 ERA over his last 15 starts. His hard-hit rate allowed has spiked to 43.8%, and in a ballpark that's now rewarding hard contact more than ever, that's a massive red flag.

On the other side, Blake Snell is coming back from the paternity list and could have some rust. Even when he's sharp, Snell has always been homer-prone (career 1.3 HR/9), and the new Dodger Stadium environment isn't doing him any favors.

Weather check: Clear skies, 78 degrees, light winds. Perfect conditions for baseballs to carry. When you combine elite offenses, questionable starting pitching, a launching pad ballpark, and ideal weather, the over becomes a no-brainer.

Historical context: these teams combined for 11.2 runs per game in their season series, with 4 of 6 games going over the posted total.

vs Yoendrys Gomez & Chicago White Sox | 7:40 PM ET

Sometimes the stars align perfectly, and this Yankees team total is one of those spots. We're getting a premium offense against the worst pitching staff in baseball, in a hitter-friendly ballpark, at a number that's simply too low.

The Chicago White Sox have the worst team ERA in baseball at 5.19, and their bullpen is even worse at 5.72. They've allowed 6+ runs in 67 of their 134 games this season - that's exactly 50% of the time. Against a Yankees offense that ranks 3rd in baseball in runs scored, this is going to get ugly fast.

Yoendrys Gomez is making just his 4th major league start, and his 2.57 ERA is completely unsustainable based on his peripherals. His 4.8 walks per nine innings and .189 BABIP scream regression, and you don't want to be on the wrong side when it hits.

Yankee Stadium factors are huge here too. The short porch in right field (314 feet) is perfect for left-handed mashers like Juan Soto and Anthony Rizzo. Aaron Judge has 31 of his 40 home runs at home this year, and he's slugging .891 against right-handed pitching.

Here's a telling stat: the Yankees are averaging 6.8 runs per game at home this season, and they've scored 6+ runs in 8 of their last 10 games at Yankee Stadium. Getting over 5.5 at minus-money feels like stealing.