Welcome to your complete guide to MLB betting analytics. Professional bettors don't just look at box scores—they analyze contextual factors, environmental impacts, matchup advantages, and hidden edges that the public overlooks. Master these metrics and gain a systematic advantage over recreational bettors.
Not all ballparks are created equal. Park factors measure how a stadium affects run scoring compared to a neutral environment. Understanding park context is crucial for totals betting and run line analysis.
Park Factor Scale:
Example: Coors Field has a park factor of ~115, meaning games there produce about 15% more runs than average.
| Ballpark | Park Factor | Classification | Key Features |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coors Field (COL) | 115 | Extreme Hitter | High altitude, thin air, huge outfield |
| Great American (CIN) | 108 | Hitter Friendly | Small dimensions, favorable wind patterns |
| Globe Life Field (TEX) | 106 | Hitter Friendly | Controlled climate, short porches |
| Fenway Park (BOS) | 104 | Slight Hitter | Green Monster, short right field |
| Camden Yards (BAL) | 103 | Slight Hitter | Right field short, home run friendly |
| Dodger Stadium (LAD) | 97 | Slight Pitcher | Large foul territory, marine layer |
| Oracle Park (SF) | 91 | Pitcher Friendly | Cold, windy, deep right-center |
| T-Mobile Park (SEA) | 89 | Pitcher Friendly | Marine air, deep alleys, suppresses HRs |
| Marlins Park (MIA) | 88 | Extreme Pitcher | Spacious, air-conditioned, dead ball |
Totals Betting Strategy:
Weather is one of the most undervalued betting factors. Temperature, wind, humidity, and precipitation all impact game outcomes—and sharps know how to exploit this.
Key Temperature Thresholds:
Rule of Thumb: Every 10°F increase in temperature adds approximately 3-5 feet to fly ball distance.
Speed: 10+ mph toward outfield
Impact: +0.5 to +1.5 runs on total
• Favor over bets
• Favor home run props
• Fade ground ball pitchers
Speed: 10+ mph toward home plate
Impact: -0.5 to -1 run on total
• Favor under bets
• Fade power hitters
• Back fly ball pitchers
Wind from left/right field
Impact: Minimal on totals, affects spray hitters
• Benefits opposite-field hitters
• Complicates defensive positioning
• Slight uptick in doubles/triples
High Humidity (70%+): Ball travels farther due to less air resistance. Increases home runs by ~5-8%. Favor overs in humid conditions, especially combined with warm temps.
Low Humidity (<40%): Dry air creates more resistance. Ball doesn't carry as well. Slight advantage to pitchers.
⚠️ Rain Delays: When games are delayed, bullpens get overworked. The team that was trailing before the delay often benefits from a "reset." Monitor rain forecasts and have a delay strategy.
Handedness matchups (lefty vs. righty) create significant edges. Professional bettors analyze lineup construction against the opposing starter's handedness.
Historical Platoon Performance:
Example Scenario:
Dodgers (7 RHB, 2 LHB) vs. Padres LHP starter
✓ Dodgers have platoon advantage across most of lineup
✓ If Padres' LHP starter has reverse splits (worse vs. RHB), edge amplifies
✓ Consider Dodgers team total over or first 5 innings over
Where to Find Platoon Splits:
Bullpens win and lose more games than most bettors realize. Understanding bullpen strength, fatigue, and leverage situations is critical.
| Metric | What It Measures | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Leverage Index (LI) | Importance of game situation (1.0 = avg) | High-leverage situations reveal true closer talent |
| Bullpen FIP (Last 14 Days) | Recent relief pitching performance | More predictive than ERA, shows true talent |
| Innings Pitched (Last 3 Days) | Workload/fatigue indicator | Fatigued bullpens blow more leads |
| Shutdown Rate | % of appearances without allowing inherited runners to score | Indicates true "fireman" ability |
| Meltdown Rate | % of appearances where leverage decreases significantly | Measures consistency/reliability |
Red Flags for Tired Bullpens:
Betting Angle: When a strong bullpen is fatigued, fade them in late-game live betting or target team totals/overs.
Home plate umpires have measurable impacts on run scoring. While the effect is smaller than most factors, it's still exploitable at the margins.
Umpires with larger zones favor pitchers (fewer walks, more strikeouts). Favor unders.
Example: Ángel Hernández historically has ~103% league average zone.
Some umps call high strikes, others don't. Affects different pitch arsenals.
Track via Ump Scorecards on Twitter.
Yes, it exists. Some umps give home team an extra ~1-2% edge in borderline calls.
Slight edge to home favorites with biased umps.
Resources:
Team Performance by Rest:
Significant Travel Disadvantages:
Betting Angle: Fade West Coast teams in East Coast day games, especially after overnight travel.
These are the metrics professional bettors check daily:
| Metric | Good Threshold | Elite Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| xFIP | < 4.00 | < 3.20 |
| K-BB% | > 15% | > 22% |
| Hard-Hit Rate Allowed | < 38% | < 33% |
| Barrel Rate Allowed | < 8% | < 5% |
| Whiff% | > 24% | > 30% |
| Metric | Good Threshold | Elite Threshold |
|---|---|---|
| wOBA | > .320 | > .370 |
| wRC+ | > 105 | > 130 |
| Hard-Hit Rate | > 40% | > 47% |
| Barrel% | > 8% | > 12% |
| K% | < 22% | < 16% |
Teams play division rivals 19 times per year. Familiarity reduces variance. Betting Edge: Fade large favorites in divisional games—underdogs cover more often due to familiarity.
Day-after-night games hurt performance, especially for teams that traveled overnight. Betting Edge: Slight advantage to well-rested home teams.
When teams use an "opener" or bullpen day, totals become harder to predict. Betting Edge: Avoid totals, focus on F5 (first 5 innings) markets where you can isolate the opener's impact.
After getting blown out, teams often bounce back strong the next day. Betting Edge: Consider betting on a team that lost by 5+ runs the previous game, especially at home.
Pro Bettor Workflow Example:
Game: Dodgers @ Giants
Conclusion: Everything points toward a low-scoring game. Consider Under 7.5 runs if available.
Analytics and metrics are tools, not crystal balls. The goal isn't to find one magic stat—it's to synthesize multiple data points into a cohesive betting thesis. Professional bettors excel at:
Master the metrics. Understand the context. Find the edges. Win long-term.
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