2026 Cy Young Futures: xFIP and Advanced Metrics Analysis
Published January 15, 2026 | Deep Dive into Pitching Futures Value
The 2026 Cy Young futures market presents a fascinating analytical puzzle. We have back-to-back winners in both leagues - Tarik Skubal becoming the first AL pitcher since Pedro Martinez (1999-2000) to win consecutive Cy Youngs, and Paul Skenes achieving the historic ROY-to-Cy Young sequence not seen since Dwight Gooden in 1984-85. But advanced metrics tell us that past performance, even dominant performance, does not guarantee future results. Let us examine where the statistical value lies in this market.
American League Futures Breakdown
| Pitcher | Team | Odds | 2025 xFIP | 2025 SIERA | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal FAV | Tigers | +375 | 2.89 | 2.71 | 31.2% | 4.8% |
| Garrett Crochet | Red Sox | +400 | 2.94 | 2.85 | 33.8% | 6.1% |
| Jacob deGrom | Rangers | +850 | 3.12* | 2.95* | 35.1%* | 5.2%* |
| Cole Ragans | Royals | +900 | 3.21 | 3.08 | 29.4% | 7.8% |
| Hunter Brown | Astros | +1100 | 3.35 | 3.22 | 27.6% | 8.2% |
*deGrom metrics from limited 2025 sample and career projections
Tarik Skubal: The Deserving Favorite
The metrics overwhelmingly support Skubal's short price. His 2025 campaign produced a 2.89 xFIP that ranked second in baseball, trailing only Skenes. More importantly, his peripheral profile shows no signs of regression. The 31.2% strikeout rate paired with an elite 4.8% walk rate yields a K-BB% differential of 26.4% - the second-best mark among qualified starters.
SIERA, which accounts for batted ball data and sequencing, also supports Skubal's dominance at 2.71. This suggests his ERA was not merely the product of favorable BABIP or strand rate luck. The underlying process is elite. At +375, the implied probability sits around 21%, which feels appropriately priced given his track record and peripheral stability.
Garrett Crochet: The Analytical Darling
Crochet's move to Boston and transition to a full starter workload makes him the most intriguing AL candidate from a process standpoint. His 33.8% strikeout rate led all AL starters in 2025, and that elite whiff ability translates to SIERA projections that rival Skubal's ceiling.
The concern is workload management. Crochet has never exceeded 150 innings in a professional season. The Red Sox will likely cap him around 170 IP in 2026, which could limit his counting stats relative to 200+ IP horses. Cy Young voting historically favors workhorse starters who accumulate wins and innings. From a pure rate-stat perspective, Crochet may be the best pitcher in the AL. From a Cy Young probability perspective, the innings limitation introduces meaningful variance.
Analytical Edge: Crochet's Stuff+ metrics (115 fastball, 140 slider) suggest his strikeout rate is sustainable. If Boston lets him loose for 180+ innings, +400 becomes tremendous value.
Jacob deGrom: The Boom-or-Bust Play
At +850, deGrom represents the highest-variance bet on the board. When healthy, his career 35.1% strikeout rate and 2.52 xFIP represent historically elite production. The problem is that "when healthy" qualifier has proven insurmountable since 2022.
From a pure projection standpoint, a full-season healthy deGrom would likely post the best xFIP and SIERA in baseball. His pitch arsenal and command profile have not degraded. But betting on deGrom health is betting against extensive medical history. The +850 price already bakes in significant injury risk, but it may not be enough. This is a pass from an expected value standpoint unless you are specifically seeking high-variance lottery tickets.
Cole Ragans and Hunter Brown: The Longshots
Ragans at +900 offers intriguing value if his 2025 second-half peripherals (2.95 xFIP post-ASB) represent his true talent level. His 7.8% walk rate remains the primary concern - that is too high for sustained Cy Young contention. However, if he shaves two points off that walk rate, his ceiling becomes top-three in the AL.
Brown at +1100 feels like a bridge too far. His 8.2% walk rate and inconsistent command make him more of a solid mid-rotation arm than a Cy Young threat. The Astros' pitching development history earns him a spot on this list, but the underlying metrics do not support the candidacy.
National League Futures Breakdown
| Pitcher | Team | Odds | 2025 xFIP | 2025 SIERA | K% | BB% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes FAV | Pirates | +300 | 2.68 | 2.54 | 34.2% | 5.1% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | Dodgers | +475 | 3.05 | 2.92 | 28.9% | 5.4% |
| Cristopher Sanchez | Phillies | +900 | 3.18 | 3.05 | 24.8% | 6.9% |
| Logan Webb | Giants | +1200 | 3.42 | 3.28 | 22.1% | 5.8% |
Paul Skenes: Historically Elite Process
Skenes' 2025 campaign was historically dominant by advanced metrics. His 1.97 ERA was supported by a 2.68 xFIP, suggesting his surface-level dominance was no mirage. The 216 strikeouts in 187.2 innings represents a 10.4 K/9 rate, elite by any standard.
Skenes' Stuff+ grades are otherworldly. His splinker grades at 155 Stuff+, making it the most dominant individual pitch in baseball by the metric. His fastball (125 Stuff+) and slider (130 Stuff+) give him three legitimate plus-plus offerings. The concern here is not peripheral regression - it is the weight of expectation and potential workload management in his third professional season.
At +300, the market implies a 25% probability of winning. Given his peripheral dominance and the Pirates' apparent willingness to let him work deep into games, this feels appropriately priced or even slightly undervalued.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto: The Value Play
Here is where our models diverge most significantly from market consensus. Yamamoto's +475 price tag represents an implied probability of roughly 17%, but his underlying metrics suggest he should be closer to Skenes in the market.
Yamamoto's 3.05 xFIP and 2.92 SIERA ranked among the top five in the NL despite an injury-shortened season. His pitch tunneling metrics (Tunnel+ of 118) rank in the 95th percentile, explaining why hitters consistently chase his splitter despite league-wide scouting reports. The Dodgers' offensive support will generate wins, and his command profile (5.4% BB%) provides a stable floor.
Value Identification: Yamamoto at +475 is our top value play in either league. His xFIP/SIERA profile suggests top-three NL finisher probability of 45%, significantly higher than his market-implied odds. Full health in 2026 makes him a strong Cy Young contender.
Cristopher Sanchez and Logan Webb: Contact Managers
Sanchez at +900 represents an interesting case study in contact management. His 24.8% strikeout rate sits below the threshold we typically require for Cy Young contention, but his elite ground ball rate (58.2%) and 6.9% walk rate create a viable path. He needs everything to break right - continued ground ball dominance, Phillies defense performing, and avoiding the big inning. Possible, but not probable enough at +900.
Webb at +1200 faces similar stylistic challenges. His 22.1% strikeout rate ranks in the bottom quartile among qualified starters. Contact managers can win Cy Young awards - Dallas Keuchel in 2015 posted a 21.4% K rate - but it requires exceptional BABIP and strand rate luck. We cannot project luck. Pass.
xFIP Projection Model: 2026 Cy Young Probabilities
Our proprietary model, which weights xFIP, SIERA, K-BB%, Stuff+, and workload projections, generates the following Cy Young probabilities for 2026:
American League
| Pitcher | Model Prob. | Market Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | 23.1% | 21.1% | +2.0% |
| Garrett Crochet | 19.8% | 20.0% | -0.2% |
| Jacob deGrom | 8.2% | 10.5% | -2.3% |
| Cole Ragans | 12.4% | 10.0% | +2.4% |
National League
| Pitcher | Model Prob. | Market Implied | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Skenes | 26.8% | 25.0% | +1.8% |
| Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 22.4% | 17.4% | +5.0% |
| Cristopher Sanchez | 8.1% | 10.0% | -1.9% |
The Bottom Line: Where the Value Lives
Our Cy Young Futures Recommendations
NL: Yoshinobu Yamamoto +475 - Best value on the board. 5% edge vs. market.
AL: Cole Ragans +900 - Longshot value if walk rate improves. 2.4% edge.
Paul Skenes +300 and Tarik Skubal +375 are fairly priced. No edge, but defensible bets for favorites.
The 2026 Cy Young market is efficient at the top. Skubal and Skenes are priced appropriately given their peripheral dominance. The value lives in the second tier, where Yamamoto's injury-depressed odds create meaningful expected value and Ragans' breakout potential remains underpriced.
As always, futures markets are about process over results. We cannot control whether Yamamoto stays healthy or Ragans' command clicks. We can only identify where the statistical edge exists and bet accordingly. The xFIP and SIERA numbers point to Yamamoto as the clear value play this offseason.