2026 MLB Free Agent WAR Projections: Tucker, Bichette, Bellinger Analysis

Kyle Tucker remains the crown jewel of this free agent class, and for good reason. His combination of elite bat-to-ball skills, plus power, and gold-glove caliber defense in right field makes him one of the most complete players in baseball. The concern, of course, is health - Tucker missed significant time in 2025 due to a shin injury that limited him to just 78 games.

When projecting Tucker's 2026 WAR, we need to account for several factors. In a full healthy season (like 2024), Tucker produced 5.5 fWAR in just 122 games before his late-season injury. His 152 wRC+ that year placed him among the elite offensive players in baseball, and his defensive metrics (+15 OAA) ranked him as one of the premier right fielders in the game. The question isn't whether Tucker can be a star - it's whether he can stay on the field.

His batted ball data remains elite. Tucker's hard-hit rate consistently ranks in the top 15% of MLB, and his barrel rate sits comfortably above league average. More importantly, his strikeout rate (18.2% career) and walk rate (10.1% career) suggest a patient, disciplined approach that ages well. Unlike power hitters who rely purely on launch angle and exit velocity, Tucker's contact quality and plate discipline provide multiple avenues to offensive production.

Bo Bichette presents one of the most fascinating projection challenges in recent free agency. On one hand, his pedigree is undeniable - he's a two-time All-Star who hit .306 with a 136 wRC+ in 2021 and carried Toronto's lineup during their playoff runs. On the other hand, his 2024-25 performance raised legitimate questions about his long-term trajectory.

The defensive metrics are particularly concerning. Bichette's -8 OAA in 2024 ranked among the worst for qualified shortstops. Multiple projection systems have suggested a move to second base or even a corner outfield position to maximize his offensive value while minimizing the defensive liability. For teams considering Bichette, this positional flexibility (or inflexibility) significantly impacts his overall WAR projection.

Offensively, Bichette's profile has some troubling trends. His chase rate increased to 33.4% in 2024, well above league average, while his barrel rate dropped to just 6.1%. These aren't catastrophic numbers, but they suggest a hitter who's becoming easier to pitch around. His .292 career average masks some underlying concerns about quality of contact.

However, Bichette is just 28 years old and has demonstrated elite production when healthy and locked in. His 2021-2022 stretch produced back-to-back seasons above 4.0 fWAR. The talent is real; the question is whether the 2024-25 struggles were injury-related noise or the beginning of a concerning trend.

Cody Bellinger's career arc reads like a Greek tragedy with a potential redemption chapter. The 2019 NL MVP cratered so dramatically that the Dodgers non-tendered him after 2022. But Bellinger has methodically rebuilt his value, first with a solid 2023 in Chicago, then with an excellent 2025 campaign for the Yankees that has New York eager to retain him.

The 2025 numbers were legitimately impressive. Bellinger posted a 131 wRC+ - his best mark since his MVP season - while maintaining his trademark defensive versatility. His ability to play a quality center field at 30 years old adds significant value, as does his competence at first base. That positional flexibility is increasingly rare and valuable in today's roster construction.

What's most encouraging from a sabermetric perspective is Bellinger's underlying metrics. His expected slugging (.478) nearly matched his actual slugging (.482), suggesting his 2025 wasn't luck-driven. His barrel rate recovered to 10.2%, and his average exit velocity ranked in the 72nd percentile. These are the numbers of a legitimate middle-of-the-order threat, not a player riding BABIP luck.

The health concern remains. Bellinger has missed significant time to injuries in multiple seasons, and projecting a full 150+ game season feels optimistic. But when on the field, he's clearly demonstrated he can still impact games at an above-average rate.

Framber Valdez represents a different value proposition than the position players in this class. At 32 years old, he's entering the declining phase of most pitchers' careers, yet his skill set suggests he might age better than most. His elite groundball rate (64.2% career) is one of the highest in modern baseball history, and groundball pitchers historically maintain effectiveness longer than flyball pitchers because they're less reliant on pure stuff.

The advanced metrics paint an interesting picture. Valdez's xFIP (3.45 in 2024) suggests his ERA was slightly lucky, which is typical for extreme groundball pitchers who benefit from defensive positioning. His strikeout rate (20.1%) is below average for today's game, but his walk rate (7.8%) is acceptable, and his home run rate (0.68 HR/9 in 2024) is elite.

Valdez's durability is genuinely elite. He's thrown 200+ innings in three consecutive seasons, a feat increasingly rare in modern baseball. For teams desperate for innings, Valdez guarantees 180+ frames of quality work. That baseline alone has significant value in an era where starters average barely five innings per start.

The concern is his reliance on his curveball. As pitchers age, their breaking balls typically lose bite before their fastballs lose velocity. Valdez's curveball (his primary weapon) generated a 42.1% whiff rate in 2024, but that number has trended down slightly each year. If that trend continues, his effectiveness could decline faster than projected.