State of MLB 2026: Does Dodgers' Dominance Make the NL Stronger Than the AL? A Statistical Analysis
On the 150th anniversary of the National League, a compelling question emerges: Has the balance of power shifted from the American League to the Senior Circuit? The data suggests something interesting is happening.
The WAR Distribution Analysis
Looking at projected Wins Above Replacement distribution for 2026, the National League presents a fascinating top-heavy structure. The Dodgers' projected roster WAR sits at an absurd 58.2, driven by their rotation depth, Mookie Betts, and the newly acquired Kyle Tucker.
But here's where it gets interesting: The NL's second-tier teams, the Phillies, Braves, and now the Cubs with Alex Bregman, all project between 45-52 WAR. This creates a playoff landscape where the wild card race could feature genuinely elite teams rather than merely competent ones.
The AL's Depth Advantage
The American League counters with depth. While no team matches the Dodgers' ceiling, the AL features six teams projecting above 40 WAR: the Yankees (49.1), Orioles (47.8), Guardians (44.2), Astros (43.8), Mariners (42.5), and Blue Jays (42.1).
The Blue Jays' addition of Dylan Cease is particularly significant from a WAR perspective. His projected 4.8 fWAR for 2026 slots him as one of the AL's top five starters, filling a critical need for a rotation that underperformed in 2025.
xFIP and Run Prevention
Where the leagues truly diverge is in projected run prevention. NL teams average a projected xFIP of 3.92, compared to the AL's 4.08. This 0.16 difference, while seemingly small, translates to roughly 26 additional runs allowed over a full season for an average AL team.
The Dodgers (3.41 projected xFIP) and Braves (3.58) anchor the NL's pitching superiority. In the AL, only the Guardians (3.67) and Orioles (3.72) project below 3.75.
Offensive Metrics: wOBA and OPS+ Projections
Offensively, the leagues project nearly identical. AL teams average a projected .318 wOBA compared to the NL's .316. The universal DH has fully normalized offensive output between leagues.
Where the NL gains an edge is in projected OPS+ distribution. The top 10 projected OPS+ players in baseball include six from NL teams: Betts (158), Tucker (155), Acuna (152), Harper (148), Tatis (145), and now Bregman with the Cubs (142).
The Cubs' Addition of Bregman: A Statistical Deep Dive
Alex Bregman's 5-year, $175 million deal with Chicago deserves particular analytical attention. His projected WAR contribution:
- Offensive WAR: 3.8 (based on 2023-25 performance trending)
- Defensive WAR: 0.9 (elite third base defense)
- Baserunning WAR: 0.2
- Total Projected fWAR: 4.9
This immediately makes the Cubs' infield one of the most valuable in baseball, pairing Bregman with Nico Hoerner and Dansby Swanson for a projected infield defensive WAR of 4.2.
Win Totals and Playoff Probability
Current win total projections show the NL's top-heaviness:
| Team | Win Total | Playoff Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 98.5 | 97% |
| Phillies | 92.5 | 89% |
| Braves | 91.5 | 86% |
| Cubs | 89.5 | 71% |
| Padres | 87.5 | 58% |
The AL's more evenly distributed talent creates a tighter playoff race but potentially weaker overall postseason representatives.
The Conclusion
The data suggests a nuanced answer to our original question. The NL may be "stronger" at the top, with the Dodgers representing baseball's most dominant single-team concentration of talent since the late 1990s Yankees. However, the AL's depth creates a more competitive regular season experience.
For bettors, this means NL futures on top teams offer lower variance but lower value, while AL futures present higher variance with potentially greater returns if you can identify the breakout team from a crowded field.
The 150th year of the National League might just be one of its best.