World Series Game 5: The Pivotal Swing Game

This Is What October Baseball Is About

The 2025 World Series is deadlocked. Two games apiece. Best-of-three to decide a champion. Game 5 is the pivotal swing game—win here and you're one victory away from hoisting the trophy with a chance to clinch at home. Lose here and you're facing elimination.

What makes Game 5 even more fascinating is that we've seen this pitching matchup before. Blake Snell and Trey Yesavage both started Game 1, which Toronto won 11-4 at Dodger Stadium. Both pitchers struggled. Both gave up runs early. Both will be eager to rewrite that script.

This is the rematch, and the stakes couldn't be higher.

Pitching Matchup: Redemption on the Line

Blake Snell (LAD): The Bounce-Back Candidate

Here's the reality: Blake Snell's Game 1 was an anomaly. Before that start, he was the most dominant pitcher in the postseason. An 0.86 ERA with 28 strikeouts in 21 innings isn't just good—it's borderline unhittable. His changeup was generating whiffs at historic rates, and hitters were completely baffled.

Then came Game 1. Everything that could go wrong did. Snell's command was off, his changeup lacked bite, and the Blue Jays jumped him early. Eight hits, five earned runs, and an early exit.

But here's the bet: That wasn't the real Blake Snell. The real Blake Snell is the guy who carved up teams in October before that game. Now he gets a second chance, at home, with adjustments in hand. Expect a far better version of Snell in Game 5.

Trey Yesavage (TOR): The Rookie Under Pressure

Yesavage earned the win in Game 1, but let's be honest—he survived more than dominated. The rookie gave up seven hits and four earned runs. The Dodgers hit him hard when they made contact. He got outs, but he also got lucky with some sequencing and benefited from an 11-run offensive explosion that masked his struggles.

Now he has to do it again, in a tied World Series, on the road, at Dodger Stadium, in the biggest game of his life. That's a massive ask for a 24-year-old making his second career postseason start.

Offensive Trends: Vlad Jr. vs Everyone Else

Toronto's Offense: Vlad Jr. and Everyone Else

Make no mistake: the Blue Jays' offense runs through Vladimir Guerrero Jr. His .419 average and seven home runs have single-handedly carried Toronto through October. He's seeing the ball like it's in slow motion, and every pitcher knows he's the guy you can't let beat you.

The problem? When Vlad Jr. doesn't get on base or doesn't drive in runs, Toronto's offense can go quiet. Bo Bichette and George Springer have provided timely contributions, but this lineup lives and dies with Guerrero. If Snell can neutralize him, the Blue Jays' path to runs becomes much narrower.

Los Angeles' Offense: Sleeping Giant or Paper Tiger?

The Dodgers are hitting .216 as a team this postseason. That's brutal. This is a lineup that features Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith—four MVPs or MVP-caliber players—yet they've struggled to produce consistently.

Game 2 showed what they're capable of when they click. But can they sustain it? That's the million-dollar question heading into Game 5.

Bullpen Battle: Both Teams Running on Empty

Both bullpens are showing cracks. Toronto's 5.52 bullpen ERA is alarming, and they've leaned heavily on Jordan Romano, Chad Green, and Jordan Hicks. The workload is catching up, and asking this group to cover four or five innings in Game 5 is risky.

The Dodgers' bullpen isn't elite, but they have more depth. Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia, and Daniel Hudson have been reliable in high-leverage situations. If Snell can give LA six solid innings, their bullpen matchup advantage becomes significant.

Betting Lines & Market Analysis

Where the Value Is

The Dodgers opened at -207 and have moved slightly to -203, suggesting some sharp money on the Blue Jays at plus-money. The public is heavily on Los Angeles (over 70% of tickets), but the line movement tells you that sharps see value in Toronto.

The total has held steady at 8 with balanced action. Both starters struggled in Game 1 (combined 12 earned runs), and both bullpens are showing fatigue. The over has appeal if you think the offenses break through.

The Lean

Blake Snell should bounce back from his Game 1 disaster, but betting against Vlad Jr.'s historic hot streak is a dangerous game. At +168, the Blue Jays provide plus-money value with an offensive edge.

Alternative play: Over 8 runs (-110). Both starters gave up runs in Game 1, both bullpens are fatigued (5.52 and 4.88 ERAs), and the pressure of Game 5 often leads to mistakes. The offenses could break through more than the market expects.

Final Prediction

This game comes down to whether Blake Snell can rediscover his dominant October form or if Vlad Jr. continues his historic run. Given the plus-money price on Toronto and Guerrero's scorching bat, the Blue Jays represent the value side.

The pick: Blue Jays +168

Ride the hot hand. Trust Vlad Jr. Take the plus money.

Posted: October 29, 2025