Rays vs Rangers Prediction, September 5, 2026 | Under 7.0
Drew Rasmussen vs Jacob deGrom at Globe Life Field
Published September 5, 2026 · MLB Prediction Data Lab
The posted total is 7.0. A naive add of season run rates (4.50 for Rays, 4.11 for Rangers) gets you 8.62 combined runs. That is not the bet. The bet is that Drew Rasmussen and Jacob deGrom plus Globe Life Field pull the night below that baseline. Partitioning each starter's own earned-run rate across expected innings and handing the remainder to each club's season staff rate returns 7.39 projected earned runs.
Full slate: MLB picks today, September 5, 2026.
The listed matchup
Tampa Bay Rays (84–57) at Texas Rangers (70–72), Globe Life Field, Arlington. Drew Rasmussen, a right-hander, is listed for the visitors. Jacob deGrom, a right-hander, is listed for the home club. Void the play if either listed starter is scratched. First-pitch weather listed 72°F, Roof Closed, wind 0 mph, None.
| Side | Listed starter | Record | Park |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | Drew Rasmussen | 84–57 | Globe Life Field |
| Rangers | Jacob deGrom | 70–72 | Retractable, artificial turf |
The two starters, measured per batter faced
Rate statistics expressed per nine innings reward pitchers who work deep. Expressing them as a share of batters faced removes that distortion. Drew Rasmussen has faced 574 hitters. Jacob deGrom has faced 561.
| Starter | BF | K% | BB% | K−BB | K/BB | Pitches/BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen | 574 | 26.0 | 4.7 | 21.3 | 5.52 | 3.97 |
| Jacob deGrom | 561 | 29.8 | 6.6 | 23.2 | 4.51 | 4.08 |
| Starter | W-L | ERA | IP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | Opp AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Rasmussen (R) | 14-5 | 2.95 | 146.1 | 0.93 | 9.16 | 1.66 | 0.80 | .203 |
| Jacob deGrom (R) | 10-9 | 4.00 | 137.1 | 1.13 | 10.94 | 2.42 | 1.11 | .226 |
Drew Rasmussen sits at a 2.95 ERA with a 0.93 WHIP and 27 walks in 146.1 innings. Jacob deGrom sits at a 4.00 ERA with a 1.13 WHIP and 37 walks in 137.1 innings. Walks stabilize faster than earned runs, so the walk column is the more trustworthy August reading.
Direction inside the season
Season aggregates hide the last month. These are the prior starts, excluding today's outing so the table does not leak a result into a published prediction.
| Drew Rasmussen — last starts | IP | ER | K | BB | H | HR | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | 7.0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | — | 91 |
| 2026-08-12 | 5.0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 4 | — | 84 |
| 2026-08-19 | 5.0 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 86 |
| 2026-08-24 | 6.0 | 1 | 5 | — | 3 | — | 103 |
| 2026-08-30 | 6.0 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 4 | — | 97 |
| Jacob deGrom — last starts | IP | ER | K | BB | H | HR | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | 5.0 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 88 |
| 2026-08-13 | 2.0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | — | 53 |
| 2026-08-20 | 6.0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 1 | — | 94 |
| 2026-08-25 | 3.2 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 6 | — | 87 |
| 2026-08-31 | 7.0 | 0 | 8 | — | 1 | — | 85 |
The run environment, before the starters
Rays have scored 635 runs in 141 games (4.50 per game) with a .731 OPS. Rangers have scored 584 in 142 (4.11) with a .717 OPS. The pitching staffs have allowed 4.18 and 4.42 runs per game.
| Club | Record | R/G | OPS | Staff ERA | Staff WHIP | RA/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays | 84–57 | 4.50 | .731 | 3.81 | 1.15 | 4.18 |
| Rangers | 70–72 | 4.11 | .717 | 4.29 | 1.31 | 4.42 |
Reassembling the buckets
Drew Rasmussen averages 5.63 innings per start. Jacob deGrom averages 5.28. Weight each starter's own earned run average across that length, then hand the remainder of the nine innings to his club's season staff rate. That is a conservative relief proxy — it mixes rotation and bullpen — and it is stated as a limitation, not hidden.
| Side | Starter IP | Starter ERA | Relief IP | Staff ERA | Projected ER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rays (Drew Rasmussen) | 5.63 | 2.95 | 3.37 | 3.81 | 3.27 |
| Rangers (Jacob deGrom) | 5.28 | 4.00 | 3.72 | 4.29 | 4.12 |
| Combined | 7.39 |
A combined 7.39 projected earned runs against a 7.0 total. Unearned runs are ignored. Neither starter hits his average length every night. The opposing lineups are not in the formula; they sit in the table above.
The park
Globe Life Field is listed at 329 feet to left, 372 feet to left center, 407 feet to center, 374 feet to right center, 326 feet to right, on artificial turf, retractable at 545 feet above sea level with a listed capacity of 40,518. Park dimensions do not decide a total by themselves. They decide whether a walk plus a ball in the air becomes two runs or a long out.
Where this reading is weakest
The season run rates do not want this number. Combined they sit at 8.62 against a 7.0 total, a gap of 1.62 runs that the starters and the park have to close. Jacob deGrom also allows 1.11 home runs per nine, and one three-run ball turns a low-event night into a push or a loss.
What would falsify it
A start from either pitcher that ends before the fifth with a pitch count above 95, or a walk total of four-plus from Jacob deGrom, is the cleanest failure signal. That is how a 7.0 total gets away: free baserunners, an early bullpen, and a second time through a lineup that already scores 4.50 runs a night on the higher side.
The position
Rays/Rangers Under 7 at -125, 2 units. A price of -125 implies a 55.6% break-even. Grade it against this published number. If a listed starter is scratched, the play is void.
- Rays/Rangers Under 7 -125 · 2u
Who is on the mound?
Drew Rasmussen for Rays. Jacob deGrom for Rangers. Those names come from the MLB probable-pitcher feed, not from a guessed rotation.
Why use batters-faced rates instead of ERA?
Earned run average is a counting result. Strikeout and walk rates as a share of batters faced describe the process that produced it, and they stabilize on a smaller sample. Drew Rasmussen at 21.3 points of K−BB separation versus Jacob deGrom at 23.2 is the comparison ERA hides.
How is the pick graded?
Against the published price, on the public record. Pending is not a win. Today's full card lives at a stable URL: mlb-picks.html.
Pick, odds, and unit size come from the BetLegend daily tracker. Probable starters, season rates, and venue facts are from the MLB Stats API. Educational analysis. 18+ only. 1-800-GAMBLER.