Astros vs Mets Prediction, August 29, 2026 | Mets moneyline
Bennett Sousa vs Nolan McLean at Citi Field
Published August 29, 2026 · MLB Prediction Data Lab
The moneyline on Mets at -138 is a run-prevention bet first. Bennett Sousa projects 5.63 earned runs allowed across a 5.50-inning start plus relief; Nolan McLean projects 3.53. The side that prevents more does not have to outslug anyone.
Full slate: MLB picks today, August 29, 2026.
The listed matchup
Houston Astros (68–67) at New York Mets (60–75), Citi Field, Flushing. Bennett Sousa, a left-hander, is listed for the visitors. Nolan McLean, a right-hander, is listed for the home club. Void the play if either listed starter is scratched. First-pitch weather listed 80°F, Sunny, wind 5 mph, Out To CF.
| Side | Listed starter | Record | Park |
|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | Bennett Sousa | 68–67 | Citi Field |
| Mets | Nolan McLean | 60–75 | Open, grass |
The two starters, measured per batter faced
Rate statistics expressed per nine innings reward pitchers who work deep. Expressing them as a share of batters faced removes that distortion. Bennett Sousa has faced 88 hitters. Nolan McLean has faced 618.
| Starter | BF | K% | BB% | K−BB | K/BB | Pitches/BF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Sousa | 88 | 23.9 | 11.4 | 12.5 | 2.10 | 3.65 |
| Nolan McLean | 618 | 27.2 | 9.4 | 17.8 | 2.90 | 3.97 |
| Starter | W-L | ERA | IP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 | HR/9 | Opp AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bennett Sousa (L) | 1-3 | 6.27 | 18.2 | 1.82 | 10.13 | 4.82 | 0.96 | .312 |
| Nolan McLean (R) | 9-8 | 3.21 | 148.2 | 1.14 | 10.17 | 3.51 | 0.91 | .208 |
Bennett Sousa sits at a 6.27 ERA with a 1.82 WHIP and 10 walks in 18.2 innings. Nolan McLean sits at a 3.21 ERA with a 1.14 WHIP and 58 walks in 148.2 innings. Walks stabilize faster than earned runs, so the walk column is the more trustworthy August reading.
Direction inside the season
Season aggregates hide the last month. These are the prior starts, excluding today's outing so the table does not leak a result into a published prediction.
| Bennett Sousa — last starts | IP | ER | K | BB | H | HR | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 | — | 1 | — | 18 |
| 2026-08-21 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | — | 2 | — | 17 |
| 2026-08-22 | 0.1 | 3 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | 1.2 | 0 | — | — | — | — | 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | 0.1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | — | 28 |
| Nolan McLean — last starts | IP | ER | K | BB | H | HR | Pitches |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | 6.1 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 99 |
| 2026-08-06 | 5.0 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 94 |
| 2026-08-11 | 6.0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 85 |
| 2026-08-17 | 6.0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 | — | 103 |
| 2026-08-23 | 6.0 | 0 | 6 | 4 | 1 | — | 92 |
The run environment, before the starters
Astros have scored 616 runs in 135 games (4.56 per game) with a .727 OPS. Mets have scored 553 in 135 (4.10) with a .693 OPS. The pitching staffs have allowed 4.87 and 4.50 runs per game.
| Club | Record | R/G | OPS | Staff ERA | Staff WHIP | RA/G |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 68–67 | 4.56 | .727 | 4.63 | 1.36 | 4.87 |
| Mets | 60–75 | 4.10 | .693 | 4.10 | 1.30 | 4.50 |
Reassembling the buckets
Bennett Sousa averages 5.50 innings per start. Nolan McLean averages 5.72. Weight each starter's own earned run average across that length, then hand the remainder of the nine innings to his club's season staff rate. That is a conservative relief proxy — it mixes rotation and bullpen — and it is stated as a limitation, not hidden.
| Side | Starter IP | Starter ERA | Relief IP | Staff ERA | Projected ER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros (Bennett Sousa) | 5.50 | 6.27 | 3.50 | 4.63 | 5.63 |
| Mets (Nolan McLean) | 5.72 | 3.21 | 3.28 | 4.10 | 3.53 |
| Combined | 9.17 |
A combined 9.17 projected earned runs. Unearned runs are ignored. Neither starter hits his average length every night. The opposing lineups are not in the formula; they sit in the table above.
The park
Citi Field is listed at 335 feet to left, 370 feet to left center, 408 feet to center, 380 feet to right center, 330 feet to right, on grass, open at 10 feet above sea level with a listed capacity of 42,136. Park dimensions do not decide a total by themselves. They decide whether a walk plus a ball in the air becomes two runs or a long out.
Where this reading is weakest
Moneyline edges this thin die when the length assumption fails. If the better starter is out in the fourth, the staff rate takes over and the partition no longer applies.
What would falsify it
A short outing from the starter on the backed side, or a crooked inning against the relief bucket that the partition treats as average, is the miss. The model is only as good as the length assumption of 5.50 and 5.72 innings.
The position
New York Mets Moneyline at -138, 1 units. A price of -138 implies a 58.0% break-even. Grade it against this published number. If a listed starter is scratched, the play is void.
- New York Mets Moneyline -138 · 1u
Who is on the mound?
Bennett Sousa for Astros. Nolan McLean for Mets. Those names come from the MLB probable-pitcher feed, not from a guessed rotation.
Why use batters-faced rates instead of ERA?
Earned run average is a counting result. Strikeout and walk rates as a share of batters faced describe the process that produced it, and they stabilize on a smaller sample. Bennett Sousa at 12.5 points of K−BB separation versus Nolan McLean at 17.8 is the comparison ERA hides.
How is the pick graded?
Against the published price, on the public record. Pending is not a win. Today's full card lives at a stable URL: mlb-picks.html.
Pick, odds, and unit size come from the BetLegend daily tracker. Probable starters, season rates, and venue facts are from the MLB Stats API. Educational analysis. 18+ only. 1-800-GAMBLER.