MLB Prediction Track Record
This page is the public grading hub for MLBPrediction model calls. Every tracked pick should include the publish date, market, price, model probability, fair line, closing price when available, and final result.
Current Public Log
| Date | Game | Market | Published Price | Model Probability | Fair Line | Closing Price | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins | Red Sox moneyline | -136 to -140 | 58.4% | -140 | To be graded | Pending |
Grading Standard
Model entries should be graded against the price available at publication time. When closing-line value is available, the closing number should be recorded separately from the win/loss result. This separates process quality from short-term variance.
What Gets Tracked
Tracked fields include date, matchup, market type, published price, model win probability, fair line, closing price, result, and notes on major scratches or pitching changes. Picks with starting-pitcher changes should be marked separately instead of silently blended into the same result set.
Limitations
No model is guaranteed to beat a market. Baseball outcomes are volatile, lines move quickly, and public articles may be read after the original price has changed. The track record is intended to make the model process auditable, not to promise future results.