MLB Prediction Track Record
This page is the public grading hub for MLBPrediction model calls. Every tracked pick should include the publish date, market, price, model probability, fair line, closing price when available, and final result.
Current Public Log
| Date | Publish Time | Game | Market | Published Price | Model Probability | Fair Line | Closing Price | Result | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-15 | 08:00 ET | Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins | Red Sox moneyline | -136 to -140 | 58.4% | -140 | To be recorded | Pending | Grade after final score; mark void if listed starter changes. |
Grading Standard
Model entries should be graded against the price available at publication time. When closing-line value is available, the closing number should be recorded separately from the win/loss result. This separates process quality from short-term variance.
What Gets Tracked
Tracked fields include date, matchup, market type, published price, model win probability, fair line, closing price, result, and notes on major scratches or pitching changes. Picks with starting-pitcher changes should be marked separately instead of silently blended into the same result set.
Metrics Published After Sample Size Builds
Brier score, log loss, ROI, hit rate, average closing-line value, and calibration by probability bucket should be published only after the log contains enough settled entries to make those metrics meaningful. Pending picks are excluded from all settled-record calculations.
Limitations
No model is guaranteed to beat a market. Baseball outcomes are volatile, lines move quickly, and public articles may be read after the original price has changed. The track record is intended to make the model process auditable, not to promise future results.