Walker Buehler, the two-time All-Star who closed out the 2024 World Series with one of the most iconic performances in Dodgers history, has signed a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres. The contract is worth up to $4 million ($1.5 million base if added to the 40-man roster, plus $2.5 million in performance bonuses). It is a long way from the $21.05 million he earned from the Red Sox in 2025.
But this is a data analysis, not a narrative piece. So let us look at what the numbers actually say about where Buehler is right now, what happened in 2025, and whether there is a realistic path back to being an effective starting pitcher.
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Record | 7-7 |
| ERA | 5.45 |
| Starts | 22 (23 appearances) |
| Innings Pitched | 112.1 |
| Strikeouts | 84 |
| Walks | 55 |
| WHIP | 1.558 |
| Walk Rate | 10.8% (career high) |
| Avg. Fastball Velocity | ~94 mph (down from ~97 mph prime) |
The top-line numbers are brutal. A 5.45 ERA and 1.558 WHIP are replacement-level numbers. The walk rate of 10.8% was a career high, suggesting command issues that went beyond a few bad starts. Opponents hit .277 with .553 slugging against his four-seam fastball, a pitch that used to be his primary weapon. His fastball velocity, sitting around 94 mph, was down roughly 3 mph from his prime years. He was released by the Red Sox on August 29, 2025.
But the full-season numbers hide what happened after the release.
| Stat | Value |
|---|---|
| Record | 3-0 |
| ERA | 0.66 |
| Appearances | 3 (2 starts) |
| Innings Pitched | 13.2 |
| Strikeouts | 8 |
| Walks | 6 |
After signing a minor league deal with the Phillies on August 31, Buehler had his contract selected on September 12 and made three appearances down the stretch. The numbers look great: 3-0, 0.66 ERA in 13.2 innings. He made the Phillies' postseason roster, though he did not appear in their NLDS.
The more revealing number is the broader trend: his last seven outings of 2025 (beginning in August) featured a 2.53 ERA. That is a meaningful sample, not just a three-game fluke. Something changed, either mechanically or in terms of pitch selection, that made him effective again.
The concern is the walks. Even in his excellent Phillies stretch, he walked 6 batters in 13.2 innings, which is a 9.6% walk rate. The strikeouts were also down (8 in 13.2 IP). He was getting results, but the underlying process still showed command issues.
To understand where Buehler is in 2026, you have to understand the trajectory. This is a pitcher who has had two Tommy John surgeries: the first in 2015 (after being drafted 24th overall by the Dodgers) and the second in 2022, which also included flexor tendon repair. He missed the entire 2023 season recovering.
| Season | W-L | ERA | K | IP | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 (Prime) | 14-4 | 3.26 | 215 | 182.1 | 1.04 |
| 2021 (Prime) | 16-4 | 2.47 | 212 | 207.2 | 0.97 |
| 2024 (Post-TJ2) | 1-6 | 5.38 | -- | 75.1 | -- |
| 2025 (BOS) | 7-7 | 5.45 | 84 | 112.1 | 1.558 |
| 2025 (PHI) | 3-0 | 0.66 | 8 | 13.2 | -- |
Career totals: 57-29, 3.52 ERA, 846 strikeouts
The gap between 2021 Buehler (2.47 ERA, 0.97 WHIP) and 2025 Buehler (5.45 ERA, 1.558 WHIP) is enormous. The velocity loss of approximately 3 mph is the primary driver. In his prime years, Buehler's four-seam fastball sat 96-97 mph and generated elite spin rates. In 2025, the velocity was around 94 mph, and multiple sources noted significant drops in spin rates on both his fastball and knuckle-curve.
The question for 2026 is whether Buehler at 94 mph can still be effective. The late-season data with the Phillies suggests yes, if the command is there. But 13.2 innings is not a season projection. It is a tease.
The Padres' rotation heading into 2026 has three locked-in starters: Nick Pivetta, Michael King, and Joe Musgrove. Beyond that, they are holding an open competition for the remaining one or two spots. The candidates include Randy Vasquez (who reportedly has the inside track), German Marquez, Griffin Canning, JP Sears, Triston McKenzie, Marco Gonzales, Matt Waldron, and now Buehler.
Manager Craig Stammen has said the Padres could begin 2026 with a six-man rotation because two of their top three starters are returning from injury-impacted seasons. That creates more available spots, which is good for Buehler's chances.
The Padres lost Dylan Cease this offseason, which was a significant blow to rotation depth. They also lost production from the lineup (Luis Arraez, Ryan O'Hearn) and the bullpen (Robert Suarez). Their lineup finished 28th in isolated power last year. This is a team that needs its pitching to carry it, and Buehler is a high-upside addition to a deep competition.
One data point worth noting: during his Dodgers career, Buehler owned the Padres. His career record against San Diego was 7-1 with a 1.67 ERA. Obviously he will now be pitching for the Padres rather than against them, but that level of familiarity with the NL West (the hitters, the ballparks, the division dynamics) has value for a pitcher trying to rebuild his career.
Buehler at his 2025 full-season level (5.45 ERA) is a replacement-level arm who does not belong in a major league rotation. Buehler at his late-season level (2.53 ERA over his last 7 outings) is a mid-rotation starter who can help a contending team. The truth is probably somewhere in between. A reasonable projection for a full season with the Padres, assuming he wins a rotation spot, is an ERA in the 3.80-4.40 range: better than his Red Sox disaster, worse than his prime, and roughly aligned with what you would expect from a two-time Tommy John survivor whose velocity has stabilized 3 mph below peak.
The Padres are not betting much on Buehler. A $1.5 million base with $2.5 million in incentives is a low-risk flier. The key detail is the opt-out structure: as a player with 6+ years of service time, Buehler can opt out five days before Opening Day, May 1, or June 1. If the Padres do not commit to him, he can leave and try somewhere else. If he dominates spring training, the Padres lock him in at a bargain rate.
For projections purposes, the opt-out dates create a natural evaluation timeline. If Buehler is still with the Padres past the May 1 opt-out, it means the data from spring training and his first few starts was positive enough for both sides to continue. That is a signal worth monitoring.
Buehler's career World Series statistics are remarkable: 2-0 record, 0.47 ERA, 24 strikeouts, 1 save in 4 appearances. In the 2024 World Series, he threw 5 shutout innings in Game 3 (5 strikeouts, 2 hits), then came back on one day's rest in Game 5 and pitched the ninth inning, getting a groundout and striking out the final two batters to clinch the title.
World Series performance does not predict regular-season performance. But it does tell you something about the mental wiring of the pitcher. Buehler has demonstrated, at the highest possible stakes, that he can perform when everything is on the line. That is not nothing for a team trying to evaluate whether his late-2025 surge was real or a mirage.
The data says proceed with cautious optimism. The Padres' investment level says they agree.