Daily MLB Trends and Stats
Advanced Stats and Trends – July 18, 2025
Boston @ Chicago Cubs
- Lucas Giolito: 3.38 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 3.72 xERA; 85th percentile chase rate; elite sinker spin (2,350 RPM)
- Cubs bullpen FIP: 3.00; average leverage index 1.25; 27.4% K rate in July
- Boston’s road OPS last 10 games: .680; 22.5% soft contact allowed
- Wrigley Field runs per game factor: 0.95 (neutral); wind blowing in at 10 mph
White Sox @ Pirates
- Jonathan Cannon: 5.00 ERA, 4.85 FIP; 38% chase rate; fastball velocity dropping 1 mph last 3 starts
- Pirates wRC+ vs RHP last 30 days: 78 (bottom 3 MLB)
- Combined under record last 20 games: 16-4; strong under trend
- Both teams’ strikeout rates last 10 games well above MLB average
Angels @ Phillies
- Phillies bullpen WAR last 30 days: 1.25 (2nd in MLB)
- Soft contact % allowed by Phillies bullpen: 42% (highest in MLB)
- Angels chase rate: bottom 5 percentile (poor plate discipline)
- Citizens Bank Park HR park factor: 115 (top 3 hitter-friendly)
San Diego @ Washington
- Dylan Cease: 4.89 ERA, 4.12 xFIP; 41% slider whiff rate; improved fastball spin rate (2,400 RPM)
- Nationals OPS vs RHP last 14 days: .620 (bottom 5 MLB)
- Nationals strikeout rate: 26% (above MLB average)
- Cease’s pitch sequencing: fastball-slider 65% of total pitches
San Francisco @ Toronto
- Blue Jays home record: 32-16; OPS last 10 games: .765
- Chris Bassitt: 4.16 ERA, 3.90 xFIP; consistent K/BB ratio
- Justin Verlander: 4.74 ERA; groundball rate 57%
- Giants under record last 10 games: 3-7; batting avg .230
Oakland @ Cleveland
- James Sears: 4.82 ERA; 39.9% hard-hit allowed; fastball velocity 95 mph
- Guardians bullpen ERA last 15 games: 2.89 (best in AL)
- Both teams 5-5 O/U last 10 games
- Oakland batting avg vs RHP in July: .210
Cincinnati @ New York Mets
- Hunter Greene: 3.38 ERA, 1.11 WHIP; 27% K rate
- Mets home OPS: .760; team wRC+ 108 vs LHP
- Greene’s fastball spin rate: 2300 RPM
Kansas City @ Miami
- Royals ATS road record: 32-15
- Sandy Alcantara: 7.22 ERA; 5.2 BB/9; command issues
- Miami over last 10 games: 7-3 to the over
New York Yankees @ Atlanta
- Spencer Strider: 3.98 ERA; 12.4 K/9; 1.05 WHIP
- Yankees road record: 53-43
- Braves last 10 games: 3-7; bullpen ERA 5.12
Baltimore @ Tampa Bay
- Taj Bradley: 12 ER last 3 starts; 5.5 BB/9
- Orioles last 10 games: 6-4
- Rays last 10 games: 2-8; expected run differential -12
Detroit @ Texas
- Riley Olson vs Patrick Corbin: both groundball specialists
- Tigers 27-20 on road; Rangers batting avg .309 last 7 games
- Both teams trending to the over; Rangers 7-3 last 10 to over
Minnesota @ Colorado
- Coors Field O/U 10.5; runs park factor 114
- Twins under record last 10: 3-6-1
- Rockies worst home record in MLB: 10-36
- Slugfest likely if wind favors hitters
St. Louis @ Arizona
- Austin Pallante: 4.50 ERA; 29-19 ATS road record
- DBacks inconsistent at home; 5-10 record last 15 games
- STL batting avg .261 vs righties in July
Houston @ Seattle
- Bryan Walter: 4.05 ERA
- Luis Castillo: 3.42 ERA
- Mariners 6-4 last 10; Astros 7-3 to the over last 10
Milwaukee @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Dodgers 33-17 at home; Brewers 29-17 ATS on road
- Dodgers 8-2 to the over; Brewers 3-7 last 10
Advanced Stats and Trends – July 11, 2025
Cubs @ Yankees
- Chris Flexen: 0.83 ERA, 0.86 WHIP over 32.2 IP
- Carlos Rodón: 2.97 ERA, elite whiff and soft-contact profile
- Cubs average exit velocity: 88.4 mph
- Yankees trending over in 10 straight games
Marlins @ Orioles
- Edward Cabrera: 3.35 ERA, swing-and-miss upside
- Orioles lineup averaging 90+ mph EV from top 4 hitters
- Orioles are 7-3 in last 10, hitting .273 as a team
Rays @ Red Sox
- Drew Rasmussen: 2.83 ERA, excellent spin rate and chase metrics
- Red Sox are 9-1 in last 10, averaging 6.1 runs per game
- Rays barrel rate has dipped in July but power potential remains
Rockies @ Reds
- German Marquez: 5.87 ERA, high barrel rate against
- Reds offense hitting .284 at home with 7 HR in last 3 games
- Rockies have MLB’s worst road record and bullpen ERA
Mariners @ Tigers
- Luis Castillo vs Tarik Skubal: combined ERA under 3.00
- Tigers are 32-15 at home, allowing just 3.2 runs per game there
- Both teams trending under in last 10 games
Rangers @ Astros
- Jack Leiter: 4.31 ERA, high walk rate
- Lance McCullers Jr.: 5.92 ERA, low chase and high WHIP
- Rangers bullpen has allowed 8 runs in last 6 innings
- Both teams 7-3 to the over in their last 10
Guardians @ White Sox
- Gavin Williams: strong road ERA, excellent CSW%
- Jesse Cannon: 5.12 ERA, 1.56 WHIP
- White Sox hitting .201 in July with a 24.7% strikeout rate
Mets @ Royals
- Kodai Senga: 1.48 ERA, top 5 in MLB in whiff rate
- Mets have won 7 of 10, averaging 5.8 runs per game
- Royals are 4-6 with a team OPS of .658 over that span
Pirates @ Twins
- Paul Skenes: avg EV allowed 87.9 mph, 27.8% K-rate
- Joe Ryan: 2.64 ERA, very low walk rate
- Pirates averaging 2.8 runs/game in last 7
- Total set at just 6.5, both teams trending under
Nationals @ Brewers
- Mackenzie Parker: 4.73 ERA, reverse splits
- Brewers are 30-17 at home and 6-2 in last 8
- Nationals bullpen ERA is 4.91 on the road
Braves @ Cardinals
- Clay Holmes: 3.48 ERA, but recent command issues
- Matthew Liberatore: 3.72 ERA, 0.98 WHIP last 3 starts
- Cardinals hitting .297 with 6 HR over last 4 games
Diamondbacks @ Angels
- Ryne Nelson: 3.07 ERA, but low strikeout rate
- Tyler Anderson: 4.15 ERA, high BABIP allowed
- Diamondbacks have 10 steals in last 7 games
- Angels are 5-2 at home in July
Phillies @ Padres
- Ranger Suarez: 1.99 ERA, 0.92 WHIP
- Padres rookie R. Bergert: 3.13 ERA, low barrel rate against
- Phillies trending under in 7 of last 10
- Padres scoring just 3.4 runs/game in July
Blue Jays @ Athletics
- Max Scherzer: 4.76 ERA, K% remains high but HR prone
- Luis Severino: struggling, high hard-hit % and flyball rate
- Blue Jays are 9-1 last 10, with 15 team HR
- A’s bullpen has 6 blown saves since June 15
Dodgers @ Giants
- Dustin May: 4.55 ERA, average chase rate
- Logan Webb: 2.62 ERA, top 5 groundball rate in MLB
- Dodgers have 3 players hitting under .200 in July
- Giants are 6-4 in last 10, bullpen has 2.12 ERA in that span
Advanced Trends, Stats, and Metrics – July 7, 2025
Tampa Bay @ Detroit
- Shane Baz enters with a 4.33 ERA and 4.72 xERA, allowing a 10.1% barrel rate
- Jack Flaherty uses a slider-heavy mix with 37.8% whiff rate
- Detroit has a 112 wRC+ vs RHP since June 1 and is 30–14 at home
Colorado @ Boston
- Gomber’s 5.49 ERA comes with a 1.53 WHIP and .352 xwOBA
- Red Sox rookie Richard Fitts debuts after a 3.12 AAA ERA
- Colorado is 11–33 on the road with the lowest OPS vs RHP in MLB
Miami @ Cincinnati
- Janson Junk allows high contact (23% chase rate) and owns a 5.14 ERA
- Singer has a 33.6% CSW% in his last 3 outings
- Reds are 8–2 to the Over and hitting .277/.330 in July
Toronto @ White Sox
- Berríos is holding opponents to a .219 xBA and owns a 3.64 ERA
- White Sox bullpen ranks 29th in xFIP and the team is 2–8 over their last 10
Dodgers @ Brewers
- Yamamoto (2.51 ERA) throws 65.2% strikes and limits walks
- Peralta (2.91 ERA) strikes out 14.3/9 in night games
- Brewers are 7–3 to the Over recently
Pirates @ Royals
- Cameron (2.82 ERA) uses a curve-heavy attack (38%) with a 32% hard-hit rate
- Heaney has a 28.4% K% over his last 4
- Royals are weak vs LHP but improving
Cleveland @ Houston
- Hunter Brown holds a 1.74 ERA at home and a .190 xBA against
- Guardians are averaging just 3.9 runs per game in their last 10
Texas @ LA Angels
- deGrom leads MLB starters in K-BB% (2.13 ERA, 0.89 WHIP)
- Kikuchi has a 48.5% groundball rate
- Angels bullpen has a strong LOB% but a poor xFIP
Arizona @ San Diego
- Zac Gallen (5.45 ERA) just struck out 10 in his last start
- Pivetta (3.36 ERA, 34.1% CSW%) matches up well
- Padres are 26–15 at home
Philadelphia @ San Francisco
- Sánchez (2.68 ERA) owns the Giants historically (2–0, 1.53 ERA vs SF)
- Giants have a .221 AVG vs LHP at home
- Roupp (3.44 ERA) is solid, but SF's bullpen struggles late
Tampa Bay @ Detroit
- Shane Baz enters with a 4.33 ERA and 4.72 xERA, allowing a 10.1% barrel rate
- Jack Flaherty uses a slider-heavy mix with 37.8% whiff rate
- Detroit has a 112 wRC+ vs RHP since June 1 and is 30–14 at home
Colorado @ Boston
- Gomber’s 5.49 ERA comes with a 1.53 WHIP and .352 xwOBA
- Red Sox rookie Richard Fitts debuts after a 3.12 AAA ERA
- Colorado is 11–33 on the road with the lowest OPS vs RHP in MLB
Miami @ Cincinnati
- Janson Junk allows high contact (23% chase rate) and owns a 5.14 ERA
- Singer has a 33.6% CSW% in his last 3 outings
- Reds are 8–2 to the Over and hitting .277/.330 in July
Toronto @ White Sox
- Berríos is holding opponents to a .219 xBA and owns a 3.64 ERA
- White Sox bullpen ranks 29th in xFIP and the team is 2–8 over their last 10
Dodgers @ Brewers
- Yamamoto (2.51 ERA) throws 65.2% strikes and limits walks
- Peralta (2.91 ERA) strikes out 14.3/9 in night games
- Brewers are 7–3 to the Over recently
Pirates @ Royals
- Cameron (2.82 ERA) uses a curve-heavy attack (38%) with a 32% hard-hit rate
- Heaney has a 28.4% K% over his last 4
- Royals are weak vs LHP but improving
Cleveland @ Houston
- Hunter Brown holds a 1.74 ERA at home and a .190 xBA against
- Guardians are averaging just 3.9 runs per game in their last 10
Texas @ LA Angels
- deGrom leads MLB starters in K-BB% (2.13 ERA, 0.89 WHIP)
- Kikuchi has a 48.5% groundball rate
- Angels bullpen has a strong LOB% but a poor xFIP
Arizona @ San Diego
- Zac Gallen (5.45 ERA) just struck out 10 in his last start
- Pivetta (3.36 ERA, 34.1% CSW%) matches up well
- Padres are 26–15 at home
Philadelphia @ San Francisco
- Sánchez (2.68 ERA) owns the Giants historically (2–0, 1.53 ERA vs SF)
- Giants have a .221 AVG vs LHP at home
- Roupp (3.44 ERA) is solid, but SF's bullpen struggles late
Advanced Trends, Stats, and Metrics – July 6, 2025
Detroit Tigers @ Cleveland Guardians
Line: CLE -240 / DET +195
Total: O/U 7.5
Pitchers: Skubal (2.15) vs G. Williams (3.87)
- Guardians are 7–3 in their last 10 home games
- Tigers are 26–20 on the road this season
- Under is 6–4 in Detroit’s last 10 overall
NY Yankees @ NY Mets
Line: NYY -225 / NYM +185
Total: O/U 9.0
Pitchers: Fried (2.13) vs Waddell (0.00)
- Mets are 33–13 at home this year
- Yankees are 7–3 to the Over in their last 10
- Fried has allowed 2 ER or less in 5 straight starts
Milwaukee Brewers @ Miami Marlins
Line: MIL -125 / MIA +105
Total: O/U 8.0
Pitchers: Woodruff (0.00) vs Cabrera (3.42)
- Marlins are 8–2 in their last 10 overall
- Brewers are 28–17 ATS on the road
- Under is 5–5 in Milwaukee’s last 10 games
Tampa Bay Rays @ Minnesota Twins
Line: MIN -115 / TB -105
Total: O/U 8.0
Pitchers: Rasmussen (2.79) vs Ryan (2.61)
- Twins are 6–4 in their last 10 games
- Rays are 25–11 ATS on the road
- Under is 7–3 in Minnesota’s last 10
Chicago White Sox @ Colorado Rockies
Line: COL -115 / CHW -105
Total: O/U 11.0
Pitchers: Smith (3.87) vs Dollander (6.65)
- Rockies are 9–36 at home this season
- White Sox are 2–8 in their last 10
- Under is 7–3 in Chicago’s last 10 games
Kansas City Royals @ Arizona Diamondbacks
Line: AZ -135 / KC +115
Total: O/U 9.5
Pitchers: Lorenzen (4.99) vs DeSclafani (0.00)
- Royals are 31–15 ATS on the road
- Over is 8–2 in Arizona’s last 10
- Kansas City is 3–7 in their last 10 games
Houston Astros @ LA Dodgers
Line: LAD -180 / HOU +150
Total: O/U 9.0
Pitchers: Gusto (R) vs Sheehan (2.25)
- Dodgers are 33–16 at home
- Astros are 5–5 in their last 10 road games
- Under is 7–3 in Dodgers’ last 10
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Seattle Mariners
Line: SEA -115 / PIT -105
Total: O/U 6.5
Pitchers: Skenes (2.03) vs Kirby (4.93)
- Skenes has allowed 2 runs or fewer in 6 of 7 starts
- Mariners are 6–4 in their last 10 home games
- Under is 6–4 in Pittsburgh’s last 10
St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs
Line: CHC -205 / STL +170
Total: O/U 7.5
Pitchers: Fedde (4.60) vs Boyd (2.66)
- Cubs are 7–3 in their last 10
- Cardinals are 3–7 in their last 10 road games
- Under is 7–3 in St. Louis’s last 10
Texas Rangers @ San Diego Padres
Line: SD -135 / TEX +115
Total: O/U 8.5
Pitchers: Leiter (4.31) vs TBD
- Padres are 26–15 at home
- Rangers are 6–4 in their last 10
- Over is 6–4 in San Diego’s last 10
San Francisco Giants @ Oakland Athletics
Line: OAK -115 / SF -105
Total: O/U 10.0
Pitchers: Birdsong (5.59) vs Lopez (3.65)
- Athletics are 4–6 in their last 10
- Giants are 5–5 in their last 10
- Under is 6–4 in the last 10 matchups between these two